Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)</li>
<li>Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand</li>
<li>Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans</li>
</ul>


Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)
Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand
Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans


US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

<ul>
<li>Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)</li>
<li>Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate</li>
<li>Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. </li>
</ul>


Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)
Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate
Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. 


US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

<ul>
<li>SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025</li>
<li>Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve</li>
</ul>


SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics
Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025
Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve


Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

<ul>
<li>US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)</li>
<li>The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics</li>
</ul>


US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)
The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year
C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics


US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

<ul>
<li>Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.</li>
<li>Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. </li>
<li>Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.</li>
</ul>


Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.
Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. 
Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.


US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

United States

Synchrony Financial operates as a consumer financial services company. The Company provides  a range of credit products through programs we have established with a diverse group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and healthcare service providers.

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Synchrony Financial (SYF US)

US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

US bank's off balance sheet data is just out, showing good, improving growth in commitments, suggesting underlying loan growth is real demand, not...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

Volume of loans and commercial paper was already strong, now that debt is cheaper, this can accelerate. O/N CP rates already show rate cut. Low LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

US banks' HFD shows strong and accelerating loan growth. The change in loans during the 6 weeks into 3Q25 is $85bn vs $1bn in 3Q24. C&I is strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

Weekly B/S data for US banks shows far higher loan growth in the week, much is driven by core C&I loans. LLR balances are lower, growth rate moved...

Daniel Tabbush

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