Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>At present, 3 changes for the BSE 100 index and 7 changes for the BSE 200 index.</li>
<li>The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&amp;O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could get into such a trap.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
At present, 3 changes for the BSE 100 index and 7 changes for the BSE 200 index.
The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&amp;O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could get into such a trap.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato's Share Price Rally Become a Problem?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

SAI Life Sciences / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sai-life-sciences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43724:1" rel="noopener">SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN)</a> is planning to raise INR50B, consisting of INR8B worth of fresh issue and the rest will be OFS. </li>
<li>Out of the proceeds from fresh issue, the company intends to utilize INR6B for repayment/pre-payment, in full or part, of all or certain outstanding borrowings availed by the company.</li>
<li>Sai Life Sciences is the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue as well as EBITDA CAGR during FY22–24.</li>
</ul>



SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) is planning to raise INR50B, consisting of INR8B worth of fresh issue and the rest will be OFS. 
Out of the proceeds from fresh issue, the company intends to utilize INR6B for repayment/pre-payment, in full or part, of all or certain outstanding borrowings availed by the company.
Sai Life Sciences is the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue as well as EBITDA CAGR during FY22–24.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gland-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29723:1" rel="noopener">Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN)</a> reported mid-single-digit revenue and EPS growth in its base business (ex-Cenexi) during 9M FY24. The company is confident to end FY24 on a high note.</li>
<li>Gland Pharma starts FY25 on a strong note with gaining U.S. approval for eribulin mesylate injection, used for breast cancer that has spread to other parts of the body.</li>
<li>Over the next 12–15 months, Gland Pharma is poised for enhanced geographical foot-print in Europe through Cenexi. The addressable CDMO business opportunity is estimated at €4B.</li>
</ul>



Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN) reported mid-single-digit revenue and EPS growth in its base business (ex-Cenexi) during 9M FY24. The company is confident to end FY24 on a high note.
Gland Pharma starts FY25 on a strong note with gaining U.S. approval for eribulin mesylate injection, used for breast cancer that has spread to other parts of the body.
Over the next 12–15 months, Gland Pharma is poised for enhanced geographical foot-print in Europe through Cenexi. The addressable CDMO business opportunity is estimated at €4B.


Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN): Business Recovery Seems To Be Overlooked by Mr. Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

India

Syngene International Limited provides contract research and manufacturing services to the pharmaceutical industry. The Company offers chemical and formulation development, polymer research, large molecule and clinical development, and stability services. Syngene International serves customers worldwide.

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Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN)

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

SAI Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tear Sheet

Sai Life Sciences is planning to raise INR50B via Indian IPO. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of INR8B and OFS of up to ~62M shares by its...

Tina Banerjee

Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN): Business Recovery Seems To Be Overlooked by Mr. Market

Gland Pharma reports steady growth in base business and is confident to end FY24 on high note. While the US will remain main growth driver, the...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato's Share Price Rally Become a Problem?

We see Zomato as a BSE 100 DEL for December 2024 as it currently violates one of the derivative linkage requirements. Zomato's fate will depend on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SAI Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tear Sheet

Sai Life Sciences is planning to raise INR50B via Indian IPO. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of INR8B and OFS of up to ~62M shares by its...

Tina Banerjee

Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN): Business Recovery Seems To Be Overlooked by Mr. Market

​Gland Pharma reports steady growth in base business and is confident to end FY24 on high note. While the US will remain main growth driver, the...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato's Share Price Rally Become a Problem?

Gland Pharma reports steady growth in base business and is confident to end FY24 on high note. While the US will remain main growth driver, the...