Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Generative AI TAM Expansion: AI is a massive net positive, creating a new Total Addressable Market through agent products like ChipStack while exponentially driving up usage of Cadence's base tools</li>
<li>Massive Core IP Rebound: After underinvesting to focus on core EDA, Cadence built a world-class R&amp;D team and is capturing market share by focusing on five advanced-node "star" IPs.</li>
<li>Strong Internal AI Productivity: By applying internal agentic solutions and tools like Claude and Codex, Cadence expects 2x productivity improvement in its IP group and is achieving 60% incremental margin.</li>
</ul>


Generative AI TAM Expansion: AI is a massive net positive, creating a new Total Addressable Market through agent products like ChipStack while exponentially driving up usage of Cadence's base tools
Massive Core IP Rebound: After underinvesting to focus on core EDA, Cadence built a world-class R&amp;D team and is capturing market share by focusing on five advanced-node "star" IPs.
Strong Internal AI Productivity: By applying internal agentic solutions and tools like Claude and Codex, Cadence expects 2x productivity improvement in its IP group and is achieving 60% incremental margin.


Cadence @ BofA Global Technology Conference 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500 remains just short of formidable resistance at its 200-day MA. Yet, there are signs of continued breadth improvement.  Technology in particular continues to top our Sector RSR rankings, fueled by strengthening price and RS action for semiconductors, semi-suppliers, and numerous Software groups. Last week we upgraded our weighting for Technology and its strength continues to broaden out. In this week's report we highlight a number of actionable Technology stocks across our various Groups.

The S&amp;P 500 remains just short of formidable resistance at its 200-day MA. Yet, there are signs of continued breadth improvement.  Technology in particular continues to top our Sector RSR rankings, fueled by strengthening price and RS action for semiconductors, semi-suppliers, and numerous Software groups. Last week we upgraded our weighting for Technology and its strength continues to broaden out. In this week's report we highlight a number of actionable Technology stocks across our various Groups.

U.S. Tech Stocks Are Leading Market Higher.

On cue, outperformance last week and yesterday from cyclicals led the S&amp;P 500 to new all-time highs while defensive Sectors lagged. Additionally, weakness in the US dollar has allowed foreign equities to recover substantially, to the point where the major int’l ETFs (ACWX, EFA, and EEM) are on the cusp of bullish inflections topside downtrends. In today’s report outline our view of the U.S. equity market ad highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology.

On cue, outperformance last week and yesterday from cyclicals led the S&amp;P 500 to new all-time highs while defensive Sectors lagged. Additionally, weakness in the US dollar has allowed foreign equities to recover substantially, to the point where the major int’l ETFs (ACWX, EFA, and EEM) are on the cusp of bullish inflections topside downtrends. In today’s report outline our view of the U.S. equity market ad highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology.

U.S. Strategy: Sentiment Improving, Upgrading Manufacturing

United States

Synopsys, Inc. supplies electronic design automation solutions to the global electronics market.  The Company provides design technologies to creators of advanced integrated circuits, electronic systems, and systems on a chip. Synopsys also provides consulting services and support to its customers to streamline the overall design process and accelerate time to market.

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Synopsys Inc (SNPS US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this...

Vermilion Research

Cadence @ BofA Global Technology Conference 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Strong Internal AI Productivity: By applying internal agentic solutions & tools like Claude, Codex, Cadence expects 2x productivity improvement in...

William Keating

U.S. Tech Stocks Are Leading Market Higher.

The S&P 500 remains just short of formidable resistance at its 200-day MA. Yet, there are signs of continued breadth improvement. Technology...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Strategy: Sentiment Improving, Upgrading Manufacturing

On cue, outperformance last week and yesterday from cyclicals led the S&P 500 to new all-time highs while defensive Sectors lagged....

Vermilion Research

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