Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.</li>
<li>In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.</li>
<li>The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.</li>
</ul>


In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.


[Japan M&A] - KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sysmex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19333:1" rel="noopener">Sysmex Corp (6869 JP)</a> revenue rose 10% YoY to ¥509B. Operating profit margin expanded 20bps to 17.2%. Amid rising costs, favorable Fx impact of ¥8.6B drove the margin.</li>
<li>Sales grew across regions as instrument installed increased and use of reagents multiplied. America’s volatile margin is a concern, amid the fact that Japan remains the major margin contributor.</li>
<li>For FY26, Sysmex has guided for revenue of ¥535B (+5% YoY). The company has factored in the impact of tariff estimating annual cost of sales impact of approximately ¥3B-4B.</li>
</ul>


In FY25, Sysmex Corp (6869 JP) revenue rose 10% YoY to ¥509B. Operating profit margin expanded 20bps to 17.2%. Amid rising costs, favorable Fx impact of ¥8.6B drove the margin.
Sales grew across regions as instrument installed increased and use of reagents multiplied. America’s volatile margin is a concern, amid the fact that Japan remains the major margin contributor.
For FY26, Sysmex has guided for revenue of ¥535B (+5% YoY). The company has factored in the impact of tariff estimating annual cost of sales impact of approximately ¥3B-4B.


Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): Forex to Take Some Sheen Away off Growth in FY26; Japan Still Remains Key

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sysmex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19333:1" rel="noopener">Sysmex Corp (6869 JP)</a> earns 26% of total revenue from Americas. During 9MFY25, revenue from Americas increased 13% YoY to ¥96B.</li>
<li>The U.S. President Trump has proposed 10% baseline import tariffs on medical devices. Although Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, the respite seems to be temporary.</li>
<li>Sysmex is exposed to tariff for instruments only as reagents are produced locally. Instrument sales in the Americas account for 5–6% of revenue, so tariff impact would be negligible.</li>
</ul>



Sysmex Corp (6869 JP) earns 26% of total revenue from Americas. During 9MFY25, revenue from Americas increased 13% YoY to ¥96B.
The U.S. President Trump has proposed 10% baseline import tariffs on medical devices. Although Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, the respite seems to be temporary.
Sysmex is exposed to tariff for instruments only as reagents are produced locally. Instrument sales in the Americas account for 5–6% of revenue, so tariff impact would be negligible.


Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): The US Tariff Wound Would Not Be Deep Enough

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> announced double-digit growth across all the key parameters in H1FY25. Market share expansion of medical division and favorable Fx drove growth.</li>
<li>Reiteration of FY25 guidance implies a softer H2 performance. In H2FY25, revenue is expected to increase 4% YoY, while both operating and net profit are likely to decline.</li>
<li>The U.S. contributes ~20% of medical division’s revenue of Asahi Intecc, which is lower than other large Japanese medtech companies. This should limit tariff exposure.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) announced double-digit growth across all the key parameters in H1FY25. Market share expansion of medical division and favorable Fx drove growth.
Reiteration of FY25 guidance implies a softer H2 performance. In H2FY25, revenue is expected to increase 4% YoY, while both operating and net profit are likely to decline.
The U.S. contributes ~20% of medical division’s revenue of Asahi Intecc, which is lower than other large Japanese medtech companies. This should limit tariff exposure.


Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Softer H2 Expected; Positive Long-Term Outlook Amid Tariff Noises

<ul>
<li>The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don't replace the CEO.</li>
<li>After 4+mos  of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an "MBO" at ¥3,300/share.</li>
<li>Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thinking-about-topcon-7732-and-the-new-meti-enabled-bad-cop-good-cop-routine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bad Cops</a>" but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.</li>
</ul>


The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don't replace the CEO.
After 4+mos  of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an "MBO" at ¥3,300/share.
Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the "Bad Cops" but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.


[Japan Activism] - KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

Japan

SYSMEX CORPORATION manufactures reagents and equipment for clinical tests including hematologic (blood) and immune tests. The Company also develops, manufactures, and trades particle analyzers such as blood coagulation analyzer and related software. Manufacturing and sales outside Japan include the United States, EMEA, China and Asia Pacific regions.

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Sysmex (6869 JT)

[Japan M&A] - KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

The KKR/JIC/ValueAct deal for Topcon launches tomorrow as the timeline would have expected. There is no deal for Oasis shares that I can see....

Travis Lundy

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): Forex to Take Some Sheen Away off Growth in FY26; Japan Still Remains Key

Sysmex's FY25 revenue increased 10% to ¥509B with expanding profit margin. However, concern remains over America's volatile margin. The company...

Tina Banerjee

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): The US Tariff Wound Would Not Be Deep Enough

Sysmex is exposed to tariff for instruments only as reagents are produced locally. Instrument sales in the Americas account for 5–6% of revenue, so...

Tina Banerjee

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Softer H2 Expected; Positive Long-Term Outlook Amid Tariff Noises

Asahi Intecc sees strong H1FY25 growth, but FY25 guidance suggests softer H2 performance with revenue up 4% YoY and profit decline. U.S. revenue...

Tina Banerjee

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[Japan M&A] - KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

The KKR/JIC/ValueAct deal for Topcon launches tomorrow as the timeline would have expected. There is no deal for Oasis shares that I can see....

Travis Lundy

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): Forex to Take Some Sheen Away off Growth in FY26; Japan Still Remains Key

​Sysmex's FY25 revenue increased 10% to ¥509B with expanding profit margin. However, concern remains over America's volatile margin. The company...

Tina Banerjee

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): The US Tariff Wound Would Not Be Deep Enough

Sysmex is exposed to tariff for instruments only as reagents are produced locally. Instrument sales in the Americas account for 5–6% of revenue, so...

Tina Banerjee

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Softer H2 Expected; Positive Long-Term Outlook Amid Tariff Noises

​Asahi Intecc sees strong H1FY25 growth, but FY25 guidance suggests softer H2 performance with revenue up 4% YoY and profit decline. U.S. revenue...

Tina Banerjee

[Japan Activism] - KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share

The Topcon Deal is out. ¥3,300/share. This may or may not please activists. It is light given extreme confidence in the eyecare biz. But if...

Travis Lundy

Sysmex's FY25 revenue increased 10% to ¥509B with expanding profit margin. However, concern remains over America's volatile margin. The company...

Asahi Intecc sees strong H1FY25 growth, but FY25 guidance suggests softer H2 performance with revenue up 4% YoY and profit decline. U.S. revenue...