Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 For the week: Nikkei: +3.6% | TPX +3.1% | JPY 152.84 (+2.20¥): equities broke decisively to new highs </li>
<li>The market’s optimism was anchored in political transition: the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister </li>
<li>The coalition agreement unites conservative and reformist forces around constitutional, defense, and fiscal reforms to build a “strong and independent Japan.” </li>
</ul>



 For the week: Nikkei: +3.6% | TPX +3.1% | JPY 152.84 (+2.20¥): equities broke decisively to new highs 
The market’s optimism was anchored in political transition: the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister 
The coalition agreement unites conservative and reformist forces around constitutional, defense, and fiscal reforms to build a “strong and independent Japan.” 


Japan Strategy Weekly | Building a Strong and Independent Japan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ps Mitsubishi Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Partial Offer launched last month by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> to take a 50.2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> ends at the beginning of next week.</li>
<li>This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. </li>
<li>Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.</li>
</ul>


The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
This hasn't been a very "exciting" trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

<ul>
<li>Last week, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ps-mitsubishi-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16582:1" rel="noopener">Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP)</a> reported earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7896:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Corp (1801 JP)</a> announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.</li>
<li>Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.</li>
<li>Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. </li>
</ul>


Last week, as Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) reported earnings, Taisei Corp (1801 JP) announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi, buying out Ube Cement &amp; Taiheiyo Cement stakes.
Partial offers have recently traded well before the close, and badly after the result. As we near year-end, this one could trade a bit softer, suggesting a lower back end.
Shareholder Structure, Pro-ration analysis, and back end calculation grids below. 


Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 index closed up last week and it has a good probability to rise further this week: the MRM tool has identified the current pattern as "bullish".</li>
<li>
Resistance targets are located past 33500, the index could reach that target this week.</li>
<li>If the index rises for 3 weeks or more, it could breakout from the previous resistance range around 33700, and reach targets past 34000.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 index closed up last week and it has a good probability to rise further this week: the MRM tool has identified the current pattern as "bullish".

Resistance targets are located past 33500, the index could reach that target this week.
If the index rises for 3 weeks or more, it could breakout from the previous resistance range around 33700, and reach targets past 34000.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Resistance Targets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Japan

TAIHEIYO CEMENT CORPORATION manufactures cement and industrial materials such as limestone.  The Company also operates real estate, waste management (zero emission promotion), and transportation businesses. Taiheiyo Cement operates in Japan, China, and the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Taiheiyo Cement (5233 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Building a Strong and Independent Japan

Equities in Japan surged to new highs as market optimism was fueled by the election of Japan's first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, and a...

Mark Chadwick

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

GC Taisei Corp announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi to go to 50.2%. Ube and Taiheiyo Cement will sell. Partial Offers have traded badly on...

Travis Lundy

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Resistance Targets

A tactical short-term WEEKLY analysis of the Nikkei 225 resistance levels: bullish pattern, the index can rise +1 week or more, but it will...

Nico Rosti

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Building a Strong and Independent Japan

​Equities in Japan surged to new highs as market optimism was fueled by the election of Japan's first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, and a...

Mark Chadwick

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) - Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Taisei's Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi (1871) has engendered a LOT of volume over the last three weeks. That suggests to me participation will be...

Travis Lundy

Taisei Corp (1801) Partial Tender for PS Mitsubishi Construction (1871)

GC Taisei Corp announced a Partial Offer for PS Mitsubishi to go to 50.2%. Ube and Taiheiyo Cement will sell. Partial Offers have traded badly on...

Travis Lundy

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Resistance Targets

A tactical short-term WEEKLY analysis of the Nikkei 225 resistance levels: bullish pattern, the index can rise +1 week or more, but it will...

Nico Rosti

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Equities in Japan surged to new highs as market optimism was fueled by the election of Japan's first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, and a...