Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

The Shanghai Commerical & Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23</li>
<li>Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY</li>
<li>Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon</li>
</ul>


Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23
Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY
Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon


The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated holding was USD1,346.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,288mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, WT Microelectronics, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, MediaTek, Wt Microelectronics, Mediatek, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated holding was USD1,346.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,288mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, WT Microelectronics, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, MediaTek, Wt Microelectronics, Mediatek, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 28th): TSMC, WT Microelectronics, Hon Hai Precision

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Teco Electric & Machinery / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.</li>
<li>Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.


Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated holding was USD1,288.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD4,241mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, ASE Industrial, Alchip Technologies, Ase Industrial, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Alchip Technologies.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated holding was USD1,288.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD4,241mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, ASE Industrial, Alchip Technologies, Ase Industrial, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Alchip Technologies.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 21st): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, ASE Industrial

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 14th. The aggregated holding was USD1,348.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,286mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Cleanaway, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, Cleanaway, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 14th. The aggregated holding was USD1,348.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,286mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Cleanaway, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, Cleanaway, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Mediatek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 14th): TSMC, Cleanaway, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics

Taiwan

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

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Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank shows 31% net interest income growth YoY in 1Q23 and dramatically lower credit costs. It is likely to see ROA...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 28th): TSMC, WT Microelectronics, Hon Hai Precision

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), WT Microelectronics (3036 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

There could be 3 changes for the ETF in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 12.7% and round-trip trade is TWD 125bn (US$4bn). There will be same-way...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 21st): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, ASE Industrial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Hon Hai Precision (2317 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 14th): TSMC, Cleanaway, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Cleanaway (8422 TT), Hon Hai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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