Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>CTAs are positioned in Asia uptrends, but the stocks that support it are losing momentum.</li>
<li>We uncovered stocks that sit outside the CTA trade that may be less vulnerable to outflows.</li>
<li>Tech uptrends remain intact, just lower their weight and make room for less volatile trends in financials.</li>
</ul>


CTAs are positioned in Asia uptrends, but the stocks that support it are losing momentum.
We uncovered stocks that sit outside the CTA trade that may be less vulnerable to outflows.
Tech uptrends remain intact, just lower their weight and make room for less volatile trends in financials.


CTA Trend Picks in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After rumours were rekindled a week earlier, on 22 August 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> announced they would merge.</li>
<li>The ratio is 0.6022 shares of Taishin for every share of Shin Kong putting NEWCO assets at about the level of Taiwan #3 CTBC Financial. That's bad.</li>
<li>There's history here. LOTS of history. This would need approvals from the FSC and FTC, but CTBC is already a spoiner, and the SKFH Board Meeting was anything but clean.</li>
</ul>


After rumours were rekindled a week earlier, on 22 August 2024, Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced they would merge.
The ratio is 0.6022 shares of Taishin for every share of Shin Kong putting NEWCO assets at about the level of Taiwan #3 CTBC Financial. That's bad.
There's history here. LOTS of history. This would need approvals from the FSC and FTC, but CTBC is already a spoiner, and the SKFH Board Meeting was anything but clean.


Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn't Clean, And It's A Bad Price

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Taishin Financial Holding / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.</li>
<li>The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.</li>
<li>There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.
The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD2,366.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD839mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, Delta Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD2,366.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD839mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, Delta Electronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 2nd): MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics

Taiwan

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

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Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)

CTA Trend Picks in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan

Trend followers are long Asian equities, but the mega-cap leaders are decelerating. If CTAs unwind, what survives? Hold strength at lower weights...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn't Clean, And It's A Bad Price

Shin Kong Financial and Taishin Financial have agreed to merge, but the Board decision and price aren't pretty. Looks a bit like a coup. And CTBC...

Travis Lundy

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week

There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7bn. There are a few...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 2nd): MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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