Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gartner reports Q2’23 PC unit shipments amounted to 59.7 million units, a decrease of 16.6% YoY, but an increase of ~8% QoQ</li>
<li>TSMC Q2'23 revenue will marginally exceed midpoint of the guided range.</li>
<li>Intel CEO second trip to China in 3 months heightens speculation about China's approval of the pending Tower Semi acquisition. </li>
</ul>


Gartner reports Q2’23 PC unit shipments amounted to 59.7 million units, a decrease of 16.6% YoY, but an increase of ~8% QoQ
TSMC Q2'23 revenue will marginally exceed midpoint of the guided range.
Intel CEO second trip to China in 3 months heightens speculation about China's approval of the pending Tower Semi acquisition. 


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23

<ul>
<li>The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. </li>
<li>Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.</li>
<li>Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found</li>
</ul>


The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. 
Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.
Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found


Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of March amounted to $39.83 billion, representing a 0.33% increase sequentially, the first such increase in twelve months.</li>
<li>Q1 2023 sales amounted to $119.5 billion, a decrease of 8.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and 21.3% less than the first quarter of 2022.</li>
<li>While small, the March MoM increase is still hugely significant.</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of March amounted to $39.83 billion, representing a 0.33% increase sequentially, the first such increase in twelve months.
Q1 2023 sales amounted to $119.5 billion, a decrease of 8.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and 21.3% less than the first quarter of 2022.
While small, the March MoM increase is still hugely significant.


Global Semiconductor Sales Increased 0.33% MoM In March 2023

<ul>
<li>In reality,  with 18A already sampling since Q4 '22, it's effectively a done deal already</li>
<li>Despite being "manufacturing ready" since December 2022, the first product based on Intel 4 likely won't hit the shelves until Q4 '23</li>
<li>"5 nodes in 4 years" is meaningless unless qualified with unit volume, ramp speed and yield metrics. These are where the real challenges lie.  </li>
</ul>


In reality,  with 18A already sampling since Q4 '22, it's effectively a done deal already
Despite being "manufacturing ready" since December 2022, the first product based on Intel 4 likely won't hit the shelves until Q4 '23
"5 nodes in 4 years" is meaningless unless qualified with unit volume, ramp speed and yield metrics. These are where the real challenges lie.  


Intel's "5 Nodes In 4 Years" Is A Red Herring

<ul>
<li>February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two decades. </li>
<li>However, we are beginning to see green shoots of recovery from the likes of Foxconn, Asus and Nanya</li>
<li>We predict semi sales will trough in Q2 2023 and begin a gradual recovery through H2 2023</li>
</ul>


February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two decades. 
However, we are beginning to see green shoots of recovery from the likes of Foxconn, Asus and Nanya
We predict semi sales will trough in Q2 2023 and begin a gradual recovery through H2 2023


Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM, 20.7% YoY In February 2023

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and distributes rectifiers, thermal bar code printers, and color photo printers.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Co (5425 TT)

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23

Gartner reports Q2’23 PC shipments of 59.7 million units, -16.6% YoY, but +8% QoQ. TSMC Q2'23 revenue will marginally exceed guided midpoint....

William Keating

Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

The H2'23 recovery will likely be muted. Downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments. While most semis are...

William Keating

Global Semiconductor Sales Increased 0.33% MoM In March 2023

Global semi sales for March '23 amounted to $39.83 billion, a 0.33% increase sequentially, the first such increase in twelve months.While small,...

William Keating

Intel's "5 Nodes In 4 Years" Is A Red Herring

"5 nodes in 4 years" is a meaningless mantra unless qualified with unit volume, ramp speed and yield metrics. These are where the real challenges lie.

William Keating

Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM, 20.7% YoY In February 2023

February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two...

William Keating

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