Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.</li>
<li>Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  </li>
<li>Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  </li>
</ul>


U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +19% Premium; Good Level to Close Out for Those Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>UMC: -3.9% Discount; Rare Deep Discount Good Level to Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: -5.5% Discount; Any Spread Below Parity a Good Level to Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +19% Premium; Good Level to Close Out for Those Short the ADR Spread
UMC: -3.9% Discount; Rare Deep Discount Good Level to Long the ADR Spread
ASE: -5.5% Discount; Any Spread Below Parity a Good Level to Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weak US Friday Session Opens Up Wide Opportunities Across the Board

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC and UMC 3Q revenues are slightly above Guidance / Consensus. In US$, TSMC revenues growing at 40% YoY. Legacy Fab UMC growing at 4%. </li>
<li>This will continue, even if AI / HPC growth is slowing into 2026, the gap will remain wide between AI / HPC (say 35% growth) and Legacy (5%). </li>
<li>Ongoing concerns of AI investment bubble reflect “a lack of imagination” (Lisa Su). Stick with the category winners Nvidia - SK Hynix - TSMC , followed by AMD - Micron.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and UMC 3Q revenues are slightly above Guidance / Consensus. In US$, TSMC revenues growing at 40% YoY. Legacy Fab UMC growing at 4%. 
This will continue, even if AI / HPC growth is slowing into 2026, the gap will remain wide between AI / HPC (say 35% growth) and Legacy (5%). 
Ongoing concerns of AI investment bubble reflect “a lack of imagination” (Lisa Su). Stick with the category winners Nvidia - SK Hynix - TSMC , followed by AMD - Micron.


Semi Revenues Divergence Continues. AI, HPC Growing at ~45%, Everything Legacy in the Slumps.

<ul>
<li>China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.</li>
<li>Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.</li>
</ul>


China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.
Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.


Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

<ul>
<li>As Chips Move to 3nm and 2nm Designs, Tech Companies Could See a Sharp Increase in Their Chip Manufacturing Cost</li>
<li>Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely. </li>
<li>HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning </li>
</ul>


As Chips Move to 3nm and 2nm Designs, Tech Companies Could See a Sharp Increase in Their Chip Manufacturing Cost
Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely. 
HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China leads to a sharp drop in U.S. stocks amid escalating trade tensions.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weak US Friday Session Opens Up Wide Opportunities Across the Board

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semi Revenues Divergence Continues. AI, HPC Growing at ~45%, Everything Legacy in the Slumps.

TSMC and UMC beat revenue expectations in 3Q, with TSMC growing at 40% YoY. The gap between AI/HPC and Legacy Fab growth is expected to widen,...

Nicolas Baratte

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

​President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China leads to a sharp drop in U.S. stocks amid escalating trade tensions.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weak US Friday Session Opens Up Wide Opportunities Across the Board

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semi Revenues Divergence Continues. AI, HPC Growing at ~45%, Everything Legacy in the Slumps.

​TSMC and UMC beat revenue expectations in 3Q, with TSMC growing at 40% YoY. The gap between AI/HPC and Legacy Fab growth is expected to widen,...

Nicolas Baratte

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

​Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

​Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China leads to a sharp drop in U.S. stocks amid escalating trade tensions.

TSMC and UMC beat revenue expectations in 3Q, with TSMC growing at 40% YoY. The gap between AI/HPC and Legacy Fab growth is expected to widen,...

Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.