AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.</li>
<li>The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.</li>
<li>This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.</li>
</ul>


Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.
The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.
This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.


Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +27.1% Premium; Increased to More Historically Extreme Level; Deeper in Short Range</li>
<li>UMC: +2.3% Premium; Good Level to Open a Short of The Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +2.3% Premium; Wait Better Long Opportunity Near Parity or Below</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +27.1% Premium; Increased to More Historically Extreme Level; Deeper in Short Range
UMC: +2.3% Premium; Good Level to Open a Short of The Spread
ASE: +2.3% Premium; Wait Better Long Opportunity Near Parity or Below


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Deeper in Historically Rare Zone

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.</li>
<li>Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing. </li>
<li>AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers' cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.</li>
</ul>


Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.
Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing. 
AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers' cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.


Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up

<ul>
<li>Japan’s Rapidus Moves Ahead With 1.4nm Plans... TSMC Impact? -- Latest and Past Analysis</li>
<li>PC Monitor: Latest Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E </li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Factory Visit with One of Taiwan's Critical Battery Suppliers  </li>
</ul>


Japan’s Rapidus Moves Ahead With 1.4nm Plans... TSMC Impact? -- Latest and Past Analysis
PC Monitor: Latest Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E 
TechChain Insights: Factory Visit with One of Taiwan's Critical Battery Suppliers  


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus Making Progress... TSMC Impact; Latest PC Results Support 2026E Up-Cycle

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Rapidus is currently moving in parallel with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)</a> in targeting the 2nm, and is regarded as Japan’s core force in the advanced-process arena.</li>
<li>Rapidus plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido in FY2027. The facility is scheduled to begin 1.4nm volume production in 2029 to accelerate the catch-up with global leader TSMC.</li>
<li>During its mid-October earnings briefing, TSMC stated that 2nm will enter volume production as scheduled in 4Q this year, and that it will begin 1.4nm mass production in 2028.</li>
</ul>


Rapidus is currently moving in parallel with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US) in targeting the 2nm, and is regarded as Japan’s core force in the advanced-process arena.
Rapidus plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido in FY2027. The facility is scheduled to begin 1.4nm volume production in 2029 to accelerate the catch-up with global leader TSMC.
During its mid-October earnings briefing, TSMC stated that 2nm will enter volume production as scheduled in 4Q this year, and that it will begin 1.4nm mass production in 2028.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Rapidus Plans to Build a Second Fab to Begin 1.4nm Volume Production in 2029

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Deeper in Historically Rare Zone

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up

Markets bottomed out over 20-24 Nov. Since then S&P500 is up 5.2%, HSI is up 3.2% & KOSPI is up 4.2%. Predictably, the USD (DXY) is down c1%. The...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus Making Progress... TSMC Impact; Latest PC Results Support 2026E Up-Cycle

Japan's Rapidus plans for 1.4nm technology, Dell and HP results support PC up-cycle, and a factory visit with a critical battery supplier in Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Rapidus Plans to Build a Second Fab to Begin 1.4nm Volume Production in 2029

Rapidus aims to catch up with TSMC by targeting 2nm and plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido for 1.4nm volume production in 2029.

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

​Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Deeper in Historically Rare Zone

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up

Markets bottomed out over 20-24 Nov. Since then S&P500 is up 5.2%, HSI is up 3.2% & KOSPI is up 4.2%. Predictably, the USD (DXY) is down c1%. The...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus Making Progress... TSMC Impact; Latest PC Results Support 2026E Up-Cycle

​Japan's Rapidus plans for 1.4nm technology, Dell and HP results support PC up-cycle, and a factory visit with a critical battery supplier in Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Rapidus Plans to Build a Second Fab to Begin 1.4nm Volume Production in 2029

​Rapidus aims to catch up with TSMC by targeting 2nm and plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido for 1.4nm volume production in 2029.

Patrick Liao

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Japan's Rapidus plans for 1.4nm technology, Dell and HP results support PC up-cycle, and a factory visit with a critical battery supplier in Taiwan.

Rapidus aims to catch up with TSMC by targeting 2nm and plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido for 1.4nm volume production in 2029.