Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.</li>
<li>3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.
3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.
The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. 


UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Wafer shipments growing by a low single-digit %; Revenue: Fully exposed to NT dollar exchange rate fluctuations; ASP (in USD): remain stable; Gross margin: Approximately flat to Q2</li>
<li>Focus on increasing loading, improving mix, new tech deployment, and controlling depreciation (&lt;10% YoY after 2025) to gradually return to mid-30s GM.</li>
<li>UMC leverages specialty content (now &gt;50% of revenue) to differentiate from peers.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Wafer shipments growing by a low single-digit %; Revenue: Fully exposed to NT dollar exchange rate fluctuations; ASP (in USD): remain stable; Gross margin: Approximately flat to Q2
Focus on increasing loading, improving mix, new tech deployment, and controlling depreciation (&lt;10% YoY after 2025) to gradually return to mid-30s GM.
UMC leverages specialty content (now &gt;50% of revenue) to differentiate from peers.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Sales: NT$130.1–140B, down 7–13% QoQ / down 1% to up 6% YoY; (In USD: down 1–8% QoQ / up 8–18% YoY).</li>
<li>Strong flagship sales expected in 3Q25, and market demand for Smartphone (SP) expected to remain healthy, while Flagship model ramp-up being expected from 3Q25 to 1Q26.</li>
<li>ASIC business scale may impact chip lifespan, affecting post-2027 sales.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Sales: NT$130.1–140B, down 7–13% QoQ / down 1% to up 6% YoY; (In USD: down 1–8% QoQ / up 8–18% YoY).
Strong flagship sales expected in 3Q25, and market demand for Smartphone (SP) expected to remain healthy, while Flagship model ramp-up being expected from 3Q25 to 1Q26.
ASIC business scale may impact chip lifespan, affecting post-2027 sales.


MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.</li>
<li>Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication &amp; Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.</li>
<li>2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.
Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication &amp; Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.
2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.


Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>MediaTek Reportedly Wins Meta’s 2nm AI Chip Order Over Broadcom</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron -- Different Speeds &amp; Focus, Same Structural Shift </li>
<li>Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi &amp; WFE Sales All Looking Good </li>
</ul>


MediaTek Reportedly Wins Meta’s 2nm AI Chip Order Over Broadcom
Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron -- Different Speeds &amp; Focus, Same Structural Shift 
Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi &amp; WFE Sales All Looking Good 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators

MediaTek secures order for Meta's 2nm AI chip, SK Hynix and Micron show different speeds and focus in memory market, positive outlook for PC,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

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UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

​2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

​UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

​3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

​Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators

​MediaTek secures order for Meta's 2nm AI chip, SK Hynix and Micron show different speeds and focus in memory market, positive outlook for PC,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

MediaTek secures order for Meta's 2nm AI chip, SK Hynix and Micron show different speeds and focus in memory market, positive outlook for PC,...