Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), <strong>global markets may close the week down.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated short interest was USD26.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial, Chicony Electronics, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated short interest was USD26.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial, Chicony Electronics, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated holding was USD1,128.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,856mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer, Delta Electronics, Fubon Financial, Compal Electronics, Yang Ming Marine, Novatek Microelectronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated holding was USD1,128.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,856mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer, Delta Electronics, Fubon Financial, Compal Electronics, Yang Ming Marine, Novatek Microelectronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tan’s continuation of IDM 2.0 marks a pragmatic recalibration. By focusing on margin recapture and tailored customer models, Intel's ambitions are not just about competing with TSMC at scale.</li>
<li>Intel’s 18A node was never intended as a mass-market foundry product; it was a strategic, internal milestone to reestablish process credibility, with commercial foundry ambitions anchored in 18A-P and 14A.</li>
<li>Intel’s future hinges less on market share and more on executing a credible, margin-accretive foundry model.  It could well emerge as a second-source alternative in a geopolitically fragmented supply chain.</li>
</ul>


Tan’s continuation of IDM 2.0 marks a pragmatic recalibration. By focusing on margin recapture and tailored customer models, Intel's ambitions are not just about competing with TSMC at scale.
Intel’s 18A node was never intended as a mass-market foundry product; it was a strategic, internal milestone to reestablish process credibility, with commercial foundry ambitions anchored in 18A-P and 14A.
Intel’s future hinges less on market share and more on executing a credible, margin-accretive foundry model.  It could well emerge as a second-source alternative in a geopolitically fragmented supply chain.


Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC’s renewed push into 6nm, paired with Intel’s strategic overhaul under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, raises the likelihood of an Intel equity stake in UMC.</li>
<li>We maintain our Structural Long view on UMC and reiterate our original thesis: a deeper partnership via a stake from Intel would be transformative.</li>
<li>At 12.5x trailing PER with a net cash position, UMC remains attractively valued as a strategic asset -- especially if can essentially have its own 'Group' advanced fabs with Intel.</li>
</ul>


UMC’s renewed push into 6nm, paired with Intel’s strategic overhaul under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, raises the likelihood of an Intel equity stake in UMC.
We maintain our Structural Long view on UMC and reiterate our original thesis: a deeper partnership via a stake from Intel would be transformative.
At 12.5x trailing PER with a net cash position, UMC remains attractively valued as a strategic asset -- especially if can essentially have its own 'Group' advanced fabs with Intel.


Our Thesis: Intel Should Take a Stake in UMC -- New Signals Reinforce the Case

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Ase...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Many are calling the internalisation of 18A a retreat. We see that claim as a point of information, and Intel’s playbook as one that’s tightening...

Mint Finance

Our Thesis: Intel Should Take a Stake in UMC -- New Signals Reinforce the Case

UMC's partnership with Intel, including a possible equity stake, could be transformative and strategically valuable for both companies. Latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Ase...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Many are calling the internalisation of 18A a retreat. We see that claim as a point of information, and Intel’s playbook as one that’s tightening...

Mint Finance

Our Thesis: Intel Should Take a Stake in UMC -- New Signals Reinforce the Case

​UMC's partnership with Intel, including a possible equity stake, could be transformative and strategically valuable for both companies. Latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

UMC's partnership with Intel, including a possible equity stake, could be transformative and strategically valuable for both companies. Latest...