Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC today reported June 2025 revenues of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7 % MoM but an increase of 26.9% YoY</li>
<li>At the guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue amounts to $28.7 billion, up 12.2% QoQ and up 37.6% YoY, but roughly $100 million below the guided midpoint</li>
<li>However, if we take today's exchange rate of 29.24, Q225 revenue comes in at $31.9 billion, way above the guide. Take your pick &amp; let's see this day next week</li>
</ul>


TSMC today reported June 2025 revenues of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7 % MoM but an increase of 26.9% YoY
At the guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue amounts to $28.7 billion, up 12.2% QoQ and up 37.6% YoY, but roughly $100 million below the guided midpoint
However, if we take today's exchange rate of 29.24, Q225 revenue comes in at $31.9 billion, way above the guide. Take your pick &amp; let's see this day next week


TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.</li>
<li>Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.</li>
<li>In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.</li>
</ul>


Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.
Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.
In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) </li>
<li>Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  </li>
<li>Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.</li>
</ul>


Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) 
Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  
Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.


Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is making a historic push into the United States.</li><li>With a combined $165 billion committed to building six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and an R&D center in Arizona, TSMC aims to address strong customer demand from U.S.-based tech giants like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and Broadcom.</li><li>The first fab, using 4nm technology, has entered high-volume production, and construction on the second and third fabs is underway.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is making a historic push into the United States.With a combined $165 billion committed to building six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and an R&D center in Arizona, TSMC aims to address strong customer demand from U.S.-based tech giants like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and Broadcom.The first fab, using 4nm technology, has entered high-volume production, and construction on the second and third fabs is underway.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)’s $165 Billion Gamble: Will Its U.S. Expansion Undermine Its Global Edge?

<ul>
<li>Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. </li>
<li>The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. </li>
<li>That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. </li>
</ul>


Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. 
The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. 
That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. 


US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?

At guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue is $28.7b, +12.2% QoQ & +37.6% YoY, ~$100 million below the guide. However @ today's rate of...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)’s $165 Billion Gamble: Will Its U.S. Expansion Undermine Its Global Edge?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is...

Baptista Research

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?

At guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue is $28.7b, +12.2% QoQ & +37.6% YoY, ~$100 million below the guide. However @ today's rate of...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

​TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

​Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)’s $165 Billion Gamble: Will Its U.S. Expansion Undermine Its Global Edge?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is...

Baptista Research

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

​US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...