Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level</li>
<li>UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level</li>
<li>ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

<ul>
<li>TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes</li>
<li>Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products</li>
<li>We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally</li>
</ul>


TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally


TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>There is speculation that the cost of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  </li>
<li>In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.</li>
</ul>


There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.

Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Kumamoto 2nd Fab delayed because of bad traffic? Sure, bad traffic, but legacy Fab utilization is 70%, who needs additional capacity now and in 2026? Legacy demand remains weak. </li>
<li>Arizona construction is accelerating, highlighting the dichotomy that I’ve been <a href="https://techstock01.substack.com/p/tsmc-umc-monthly-sales-a-tale-of" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mentioning</a> : demand for AI / Data Center is booming, demand for Legacy (specially auto &amp; industrial) remains weak. </li>
<li>2nm yield reached 90%. True, but that’s the yield of SRAM test cell. This is not a production yield. SRAM is a very small cell used to qualify volume ramp. </li>
</ul>


Kumamoto 2nd Fab delayed because of bad traffic? Sure, bad traffic, but legacy Fab utilization is 70%, who needs additional capacity now and in 2026? Legacy demand remains weak. 
Arizona construction is accelerating, highlighting the dichotomy that I’ve been mentioning : demand for AI / Data Center is booming, demand for Legacy (specially auto &amp; industrial) remains weak. 
2nm yield reached 90%. True, but that’s the yield of SRAM test cell. This is not a production yield. SRAM is a very small cell used to qualify volume ramp. 


TSMC News: Kumamoto Postponed, Maybe Germany Too. Arizona Accelerating. N2 Yield Rates.

<ul>
<li>TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 43% YoY, Consensus at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming? </li>
<li>UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 4% YoY . No recovery in legacy semiconductor. </li>
<li>This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).</li>
</ul>


TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 43% YoY, Consensus at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming? 
UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 4% YoY . No recovery in legacy semiconductor. 
This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: A Tale of 2 Worlds

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Patrick Liao

TSMC News: Kumamoto Postponed, Maybe Germany Too. Arizona Accelerating. N2 Yield Rates.

Legacy Fab utilization is at 70%, raising questions about the need for additional capacity amidst weak demand, while construction in Arizona...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: A Tale of 2 Worlds

TSMC outperforms revenue guidance while UMC falls short, highlighting AI as the only growing segment in semiconductors.

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

​TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

​Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Patrick Liao

TSMC News: Kumamoto Postponed, Maybe Germany Too. Arizona Accelerating. N2 Yield Rates.

​Legacy Fab utilization is at 70%, raising questions about the need for additional capacity amidst weak demand, while construction in Arizona...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: A Tale of 2 Worlds

​TSMC outperforms revenue guidance while UMC falls short, highlighting AI as the only growing segment in semiconductors.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Legacy Fab utilization is at 70%, raising questions about the need for additional capacity amidst weak demand, while construction in Arizona...

TSMC outperforms revenue guidance while UMC falls short, highlighting AI as the only growing segment in semiconductors.