Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. </li>
<li>Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share </li>
<li>AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. </li>
</ul>


Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. 
Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share 
AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. 


SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Reports of Samsung securing 2nm customers (Nvidia, Qualcomm), but AMD is saying that TSMC has the best and only 2nm, Nvidia saying there’s no alternative to TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Competition at 2nm / 18A is already over. Chips tape-out are rolling out. If Intel, Samsung can gain Foundry customers, it is for the next node 14A in 2027-28.</li>
<li>The difficulty for Intel and Samsung is that TSMC is a lot faster to develop PDK, qualify process, tape-out chips. The total cost of chipdesign at US$0.5-1bn is another hurdle.  </li>
</ul>


Reports of Samsung securing 2nm customers (Nvidia, Qualcomm), but AMD is saying that TSMC has the best and only 2nm, Nvidia saying there’s no alternative to TSMC CoWoS.   
Competition at 2nm / 18A is already over. Chips tape-out are rolling out. If Intel, Samsung can gain Foundry customers, it is for the next node 14A in 2027-28.
The difficulty for Intel and Samsung is that TSMC is a lot faster to develop PDK, qualify process, tape-out chips. The total cost of chipdesign at US$0.5-1bn is another hurdle.  


Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets'/sectors' EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications - the latter two with a long upgrade history.</li>
</ul>


As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets'/sectors' EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.
Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.
Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications - the latter two with a long upgrade history.


Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.</li>
<li>Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   </li>
<li>While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.
Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   
While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US).  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch "Surge O1" With 3nm.

<ul>
<li>TSMC explained that the growing demand for autonomous driving technologies in smartphones, PCs, IoT devices, and the automotive industry is driving the development of its N4/N3 and N6RF process technologies.</li>
<li>TSMC announced that the A14 process, which will adopt the new NanoFlex Pro technology, is scheduled to begin production in 2028.</li>
<li>TSMC plans to launch CoWoS-L with 5.5x reticle size in 2026 and surpass current CoWoS limitations with 9.5x reticle size by 2027.</li>
</ul>


TSMC explained that the growing demand for autonomous driving technologies in smartphones, PCs, IoT devices, and the automotive industry is driving the development of its N4/N3 and N6RF process technologies.
TSMC announced that the A14 process, which will adopt the new NanoFlex Pro technology, is scheduled to begin production in 2028.
TSMC plans to launch CoWoS-L with 5.5x reticle size in 2026 and surpass current CoWoS limitations with 9.5x reticle size by 2027.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

Samsung allegedly secures 2nm customers. AMD claims TSMC has the only 2nm. Competition at 2nm is over, chips rolling out. Intel, Samsung face...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch "Surge O1" With 3nm.

Xiaomi set to launch new products on the 22nd, including powerful Surge O1 chip potentially manufactured by TSMC, challenging MediaTek and Qualcomm.

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.

TSMC is ramping up development of advanced process technologies to meet the increasing demand for autonomous driving technologies across various...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

​Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

​Samsung allegedly secures 2nm customers. AMD claims TSMC has the only 2nm. Competition at 2nm is over, chips rolling out. Intel, Samsung face...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

​Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch "Surge O1" With 3nm.

​Xiaomi set to launch new products on the 22nd, including powerful Surge O1 chip potentially manufactured by TSMC, challenging MediaTek and Qualcomm.

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.

​TSMC is ramping up development of advanced process technologies to meet the increasing demand for autonomous driving technologies across various...

Patrick Liao

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Samsung allegedly secures 2nm customers. AMD claims TSMC has the only 2nm. Competition at 2nm is over, chips rolling out. Intel, Samsung face...

Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...

Xiaomi set to launch new products on the 22nd, including powerful Surge O1 chip potentially manufactured by TSMC, challenging MediaTek and Qualcomm.

TSMC is ramping up development of advanced process technologies to meet the increasing demand for autonomous driving technologies across various...