Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. </li>
<li>It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip's performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. </li>
<li>TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It's already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.</li>
</ul>


A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. 
It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip's performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. 
TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It's already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.


TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand

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Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Rumors That Mediatek's Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple's Chips Used in the iPhone 17</li>
<li>Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract</li>
<li>PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches </li>
</ul>


Rumors That Mediatek's Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple's Chips Used in the iPhone 17
Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract
PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level</li>
<li>UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread</li>
<li>CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

<ul>
<li>Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. </li>
<li>GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. </li>
</ul>


Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google's Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (U.S. BIS) recently released a series of public consultations regarding Section 232 related to semiconductors.  </li>
<li>TSMC stated that any import measures should not create uncertainty for existing semiconductor investments.</li>
<li>Any measures taken by the U.S. government should not undermine the national security policy objectives of the U.S. government, including advanced semiconductor production at TSMC Arizona.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (U.S. BIS) recently released a series of public consultations regarding Section 232 related to semiconductors.  
TSMC stated that any import measures should not create uncertainty for existing semiconductor investments.
Any measures taken by the U.S. government should not undermine the national security policy objectives of the U.S. government, including advanced semiconductor production at TSMC Arizona.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC’s Arizona Subsidiary Sent a Letter in Response to the U.S. Authorities.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand

The rising cost of semiconductor wafers could impact end-demand which could be limited to AI, networking, and server markets. TSMC's growth will...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google's Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

Google is switching to TSMC for its Pixel chips, TSMC provides updates at technology symposium, GlobalWafers shareholders meeting held with US...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC’s Arizona Subsidiary Sent a Letter in Response to the U.S. Authorities.

U.S. BIS seeks public input on Section 232 for semiconductors, TSMC urges measures to not disrupt existing investments or national security...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand

​The rising cost of semiconductor wafers could impact end-demand which could be limited to AI, networking, and server markets. TSMC's growth will...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

​Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google's Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

​Google is switching to TSMC for its Pixel chips, TSMC provides updates at technology symposium, GlobalWafers shareholders meeting held with US...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC’s Arizona Subsidiary Sent a Letter in Response to the U.S. Authorities.

​U.S. BIS seeks public input on Section 232 for semiconductors, TSMC urges measures to not disrupt existing investments or national security...

Patrick Liao

The rising cost of semiconductor wafers could impact end-demand which could be limited to AI, networking, and server markets. TSMC's growth will...

Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Google is switching to TSMC for its Pixel chips, TSMC provides updates at technology symposium, GlobalWafers shareholders meeting held with US...

U.S. BIS seeks public input on Section 232 for semiconductors, TSMC urges measures to not disrupt existing investments or national security...