Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...</li>
<li>...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...
...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.


Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Wistron and Quanta drove most of the chain's August revenue growth, about 80% of the sequential increase, while notebook-heavy Inventec and Compal fell below their own seasonal pattern.</li>
<li>Memory revenue held July's level rather than extending it: the six names grew 2.7% MoM after +32% in July, and Nanya was flat against +26% last August.</li>
<li>Chip designers ran well ahead of seasonal: MediaTek's revenue grew 32% MoM against 3% last August, unexplained in its filing, and Alchip's custom AI chip revenue grew again.</li>
</ul>


Wistron and Quanta drove most of the chain's August revenue growth, about 80% of the sequential increase, while notebook-heavy Inventec and Compal fell below their own seasonal pattern.
Memory revenue held July's level rather than extending it: the six names grew 2.7% MoM after +32% in July, and Nanya was flat against +26% last August.
Chip designers ran well ahead of seasonal: MediaTek's revenue grew 32% MoM against 3% last August, unexplained in its filing, and Alchip's custom AI chip revenue grew again.


Taiwan Supply Chain Signals: Wistron & Quanta Drive AI Server Revenue Jump; Memory Sales Level Off

<ul>
<li>The fab is the first buyer of Taiwan's robot parts: smart manufacturing was SEMICON Taiwan 2026's largest zone, up 20% against 6% for advanced packaging.</li>
<li>Labor drives the orders: TSMC has about 20 fabs under construction and calls construction workers a limiting factor, while ASE lists labor among six packaging challenges.</li>
<li>TSMC will release its packaging-equipment automation specs and simulation software free in 4Q, which lowers the entry bar for local automation makers.</li>
</ul>


The fab is the first buyer of Taiwan's robot parts: smart manufacturing was SEMICON Taiwan 2026's largest zone, up 20% against 6% for advanced packaging.
Labor drives the orders: TSMC has about 20 fabs under construction and calls construction workers a limiting factor, while ASE lists labor among six packaging challenges.
TSMC will release its packaging-equipment automation specs and simulation software free in 4Q, which lowers the entry bar for local automation makers.


TechChain Insights: Walking SEMICON 2026 Showed the Fab Is the First Buyer of Taiwan's Robot Parts

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Premarket Report: Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159. $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Supply Chain Signals: Wistron & Quanta Drive AI Server Revenue Jump; Memory Sales Level Off

Wistron and Quanta drove most of the chain's August revenue growth, about 80% of the sequential increase, while notebook-heavy Inventec and Compal...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Walking SEMICON 2026 Showed the Fab Is the First Buyer of Taiwan's Robot Parts

Labor drives the orders: TSMC has about 20 fabs under construction and calls construction workers a limiting factor, while ASE lists labor among...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

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