Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 26.2% Premium; Historically Extreme Level to Open Fresh Short of the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +1.0% Premium: Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short</li>
<li>ASE: +2.7% Premium; Open Fresh Longs of ADR Spread Closer to Parity</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 26.2% Premium; Historically Extreme Level to Open Fresh Short of the Spread
UMC: +1.0% Premium: Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short
ASE: +2.7% Premium; Open Fresh Longs of ADR Spread Closer to Parity


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Historically Extreme Level; ASE Bounces Off Parity

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s potential Intel stake highlights need for packaging know-how, not customers, and provides a hedge if its 2nm yields or production slip.</li>
<li>TSMC extends lead with stable N3, on-track N2, AI packaging dominance, and customer migrations, while Samsung’s foundry share declines below 8%.</li>
<li>Implications: Positive for TSMC (2330 TT), negative signal for Samsung (005930 KS), validating for Intel (INTC US) though regulatory and governance constraints remain important.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s potential Intel stake highlights need for packaging know-how, not customers, and provides a hedge if its 2nm yields or production slip.
TSMC extends lead with stable N3, on-track N2, AI packaging dominance, and customer migrations, while Samsung’s foundry share declines below 8%.
Implications: Positive for TSMC (2330 TT), negative signal for Samsung (005930 KS), validating for Intel (INTC US) though regulatory and governance constraints remain important.


Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Fresh Short of the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: -0.6% Discount; Wait for More Extreme ADR Spread Level</li>
<li>ASE: +0.4% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Fresh Short of the Spread
UMC: -0.6% Discount; Wait for More Extreme ADR Spread Level
ASE: +0.4% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity

<ul>
<li>Apple Secures Over Half of TSMC’s Cutting-Edge 2nm Capacity; How TSMC Anchors Apple’s Product Leadership Strategy</li>
<li>NVIDIA Results Key Take-Away: Long-Reasoning AI Models Driving Massive Compute Demand</li>
<li>Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective </li>
</ul>


Apple Secures Over Half of TSMC’s Cutting-Edge 2nm Capacity; How TSMC Anchors Apple’s Product Leadership Strategy
NVIDIA Results Key Take-Away: Long-Reasoning AI Models Driving Massive Compute Demand
Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective 


Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC's Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Historically Extreme Level; ASE Bounces Off Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

Samsung's potential Intel stake underscores the importance of packaging know-how over customers, serving as a hedge for production issues, while...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC's Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute

Apple secures majority of TSMC's 2nm capacity, NVIDIA sees demand for AI models, Intel's equity deal with US government raises industry implications.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Historically Extreme Level; ASE Bounces Off Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

​Samsung's potential Intel stake underscores the importance of packaging know-how over customers, serving as a hedge for production issues, while...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC's Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute

​Apple secures majority of TSMC's 2nm capacity, NVIDIA sees demand for AI models, Intel's equity deal with US government raises industry implications.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Samsung's potential Intel stake underscores the importance of packaging know-how over customers, serving as a hedge for production issues, while...

Apple secures majority of TSMC's 2nm capacity, NVIDIA sees demand for AI models, Intel's equity deal with US government raises industry implications.