Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Value areas of the market are underperforming while Technology and A.I. areas are starting to dominate again.</li>
<li>On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level) in order to remain near-term bullish, while major support is at $151.50.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
Value areas of the market are underperforming while Technology and A.I. areas are starting to dominate again.
On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level) in order to remain near-term bullish, while major support is at $151.50.


Concerns Mounting as MSCI ACWI Tests Base Support. Buys in Tech, Services, Financials, Healthcare

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> has been consolidating in a range for the past month, reflecting institutional positioning neutrality and volatility compression ahead of the NVDA earnings catalyst event.</li>
<li>Market participants have been withholding directional capital commitments pending direct operational confirmation of Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture ramp speed, hyperscaler capex durability, and TSMC's CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) yield trajectories.</li>
<li>By the time this insight is published NVDA's earnings will be out: <strong>this insight looks at tactical profit targets/support zones that could be reached by TSMC after the guidance.</strong>
</li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) has been consolidating in a range for the past month, reflecting institutional positioning neutrality and volatility compression ahead of the NVDA earnings catalyst event.
Market participants have been withholding directional capital commitments pending direct operational confirmation of Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture ramp speed, hyperscaler capex durability, and TSMC's CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) yield trajectories.
By the time this insight is published NVDA's earnings will be out: this insight looks at tactical profit targets/support zones that could be reached by TSMC after the guidance.



TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook Post-NVDA Earnings

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> enjoys a near-monopoly status in the N2 and N3 advanced foundry nodes. </li>
<li>Investors should not expect the management to actively buy back its shares; instead, they should expect high growth numbers from TSMC.</li>
<li>Despite the relatively high PER and PBR, its PEG ratio is 0.6x, thanks to the high growth numbers that make its valuation level still compelling. </li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) enjoys a near-monopoly status in the N2 and N3 advanced foundry nodes. 
Investors should not expect the management to actively buy back its shares; instead, they should expect high growth numbers from TSMC.
Despite the relatively high PER and PBR, its PEG ratio is 0.6x, thanks to the high growth numbers that make its valuation level still compelling. 


Hedge Fund News, Information and Data, Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data

We focus on hedge funds with a bias towards emerging managers, specifically fundamental long-short managers. We are known for a lot of insights and exclusives on hedge fund letters, coverage of industry conferences, and interviews with investors and interesting service providers.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Dan Loeb is the founder and CEO of Third Point , the New York-based investment firm he launched in 1995.</li><li>Known for his event-driven and activist investing, Loeb has built Third Point into a prominent multi-strategy investment firm.</li><li>As of June 30, 2026, Loeb’s disclosed U.S. equity portfolio totaled $4.68 billion across 39 holdings. </li></ul>

Dan Loeb is the founder and CEO of Third Point , the New York-based investment firm he launched in 1995.Known for his event-driven and activist investing, Loeb has built Third Point into a prominent multi-strategy investment firm.As of June 30, 2026, Loeb’s disclosed U.S. equity portfolio totaled $4.68 billion across 39 holdings. 

Dan Loeb Portfolio: Third Point Top Holdings (Q2 2026)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.</li>
<li>Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.</li>
<li>Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.
Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.


This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

Concerns Mounting as MSCI ACWI Tests Base Support. Buys in Tech, Services, Financials, Healthcare

Concerns Mounting as MSCI $ACWI Tests Base Support. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Financials, and Health Care

Vermilion Research

TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook Post-NVDA Earnings

TSMC (2330 TT) has been in a consolidation range for weeks, ahead of Aug 26th NVDA earnings. Read our tactical model support/profit targets to to...

Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330): 0.6x PEG and near Monopoly

High growth, near monopoly, hence 0.6 PEG, what's not to like about owning TSMC 2330 TW? Their products are badly needed by the other tech companies.

Henry Soediarko

Dan Loeb Portfolio: Third Point Top Holdings (Q2 2026)

Known for his event-driven and activist investing, Loeb has built Third Point into a prominent multi-strategy investment firm.

Hedge Fund Alpha

This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

This week in AI: OpenAI scrapped GPT-6.1 Astra and shipped Sol, Anthropic released Sonnet 5.5 at half Opus's price, and Google launched Gemini 4...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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