Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC implements restrictions on Chinese IC firms to follow US semiconductor controls, limiting access to advanced chip technologies.</li><li>Estonian defense delegation seeks collaboration with Taiwan on drones, highlighting growing partnership between the two countries.</li><li>ASE faces leadership uncertainty after chairman's heir tragically passes away, impacting the future direction of the semiconductor giant.</li></ul>

TSMC implements restrictions on Chinese IC firms to follow US semiconductor controls, limiting access to advanced chip technologies.Estonian defense delegation seeks collaboration with Taiwan on drones, highlighting growing partnership between the two countries.ASE faces leadership uncertainty after chairman's heir tragically passes away, impacting the future direction of the semiconductor giant.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.

<ul><li>Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.</li><li>Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.</li><li>SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC's expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.</li></ul>

Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC's expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.</li>
<li>In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.


Tokyo Electron (TEL):  Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

<ul>
<li>Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?</li>
<li>FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.</li>
<li>Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.</li>
</ul>


Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?
FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.
Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.


QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Expands 2nm &amp; Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm "GIGAFAB" in the South -- Despite U.S. Tariff Risks</li>
<li>Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.</li>
<li>Apple Supply Chain Monitor -- Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple's AI Trajectory</li>
</ul>


TSMC Expands 2nm &amp; Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm "GIGAFAB" in the South -- Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
Apple Supply Chain Monitor -- Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple's AI Trajectory


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.

TSMC restricts Chinese IC firms, Estonia looks to collaborate with Taiwan on drones, ASE deals with leadership uncertainty, Taiwan's software...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Top Chinese cloud platforms support DeepSeek AI as it shapes cloud intelligence landscape, while Meta and Google push smart glasses forward despite...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

TSMC expands in Taiwan and advances in South despite U.S. tariff risks, Japan's Rapidus challenges TSMC, Zhen Ding and Kinsus in favorable...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.

TSMC restricts Chinese IC firms, Estonia looks to collaborate with Taiwan on drones, ASE deals with leadership uncertainty, Taiwan's software...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Top Chinese cloud platforms support DeepSeek AI as it shapes cloud intelligence landscape, while Meta and Google push smart glasses forward despite...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

​Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

​Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

​TSMC expands in Taiwan and advances in South despite U.S. tariff risks, Japan's Rapidus challenges TSMC, Zhen Ding and Kinsus in favorable...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

TSMC expands in Taiwan and advances in South despite U.S. tariff risks, Japan's Rapidus challenges TSMC, Zhen Ding and Kinsus in favorable...