Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Rapidus Corporation -- The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.</li>
<li>How Rapidus Compares to TSMC -- Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC -- Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.</li>
</ul>


Rapidus Corporation -- The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
How Rapidus Compares to TSMC -- Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC -- Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.


Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium</li>
<li>ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium</li>
<li>ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. </li>
<li>But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth</li>
<li>The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.</li>
</ul>


After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. 
But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth
The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.


Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

<ul>
<li>Big Dec-24 due to China. Mar-25 will be weaker. FY26 growth will come only from TSMC and HBM. After a strong FY25 (~30% growth), FY26 should see growth at 10-15%.</li>
<li>Accounting concerns  should be over after the publication of the audit report on Jan 14 2025. The stock has started appreciating since early Jan 2025.</li>
<li>Valuations are low. The stock is trading at ~11x FY26 EPS. A muted Mar-25 could limit the upside short-term, let’s wait.</li>
</ul>


Big Dec-24 due to China. Mar-25 will be weaker. FY26 growth will come only from TSMC and HBM. After a strong FY25 (~30% growth), FY26 should see growth at 10-15%.
Accounting concerns  should be over after the publication of the audit report on Jan 14 2025. The stock has started appreciating since early Jan 2025.
Valuations are low. The stock is trading at ~11x FY26 EPS. A muted Mar-25 could limit the upside short-term, let’s wait.


SCREEN: Moderate ~teens Growth Outlook but the Stock Is Cheap

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.</li>
<li>Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ</li>
<li>Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see <em>some</em> improvement or <em>mixed</em> improvement in 2026. </li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.
Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ
Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026. 


Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

SCREEN: Moderate ~teens Growth Outlook but the Stock Is Cheap

China impact on Dec-24, weaker Mar-25, FY26 growth from TSMC/HBM. Accounting concerns resolved, stock appreciating. Low valuations at 11x FY26...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026....

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

​Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

​Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

SCREEN: Moderate ~teens Growth Outlook but the Stock Is Cheap

​China impact on Dec-24, weaker Mar-25, FY26 growth from TSMC/HBM. Accounting concerns resolved, stock appreciating. Low valuations at 11x FY26...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026....

William Keating

Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

China impact on Dec-24, weaker Mar-25, FY26 growth from TSMC/HBM. Accounting concerns resolved, stock appreciating. Low valuations at 11x FY26...