Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.</li>
<li>Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  </li>
<li>Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  
Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .</li>
<li>This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.</li>
<li>At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.</li>
</ul>


NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.


TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst</li>
<li>UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short</li>
<li>ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

<ul>
<li>Intel Tapes Out New PC Chips on TSMC 2nm -- Dual-Node Nova Lake Strategy Shows Dependence on TSMC... and Value of UMC for INTC in the Long-Term</li>
<li>DRAM Memory Outlook -- Nanya Results See Non-AI DRAM Demand Rebound; DDR4 Shortage Tightens, Expects Continued Strength in 2H25</li>
<li>PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year </li>
</ul>


Intel Tapes Out New PC Chips on TSMC 2nm -- Dual-Node Nova Lake Strategy Shows Dependence on TSMC... and Value of UMC for INTC in the Long-Term
DRAM Memory Outlook -- Nanya Results See Non-AI DRAM Demand Rebound; DDR4 Shortage Tightens, Expects Continued Strength in 2H25
PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC - What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC today reported June 2025 revenues of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7 % MoM but an increase of 26.9% YoY</li>
<li>At the guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue amounts to $28.7 billion, up 12.2% QoQ and up 37.6% YoY, but roughly $100 million below the guided midpoint</li>
<li>However, if we take today's exchange rate of 29.24, Q225 revenue comes in at $31.9 billion, way above the guide. Take your pick &amp; let's see this day next week</li>
</ul>


TSMC today reported June 2025 revenues of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7 % MoM but an increase of 26.9% YoY
At the guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue amounts to $28.7 billion, up 12.2% QoQ and up 37.6% YoY, but roughly $100 million below the guided midpoint
However, if we take today's exchange rate of 29.24, Q225 revenue comes in at $31.9 billion, way above the guide. Take your pick &amp; let's see this day next week


TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue

TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance in-line despite NT$ appreciation impact. Increase in 2025 US$-revenue growth to 30%, implying a weaker 4Q ...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC - What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus

Intel relies on TSMC for new PC chips, Nanya sees rebound in non-AI DRAM demand, PC unit growth expected to continue in 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?

At guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue is $28.7b, +12.2% QoQ & +37.6% YoY, ~$100 million below the guide. However @ today's rate of...

William Keating

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

​TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue

​TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance in-line despite NT$ appreciation impact. Increase in 2025 US$-revenue growth to 30%, implying a weaker 4Q ...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC - What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus

​Intel relies on TSMC for new PC chips, Nanya sees rebound in non-AI DRAM demand, PC unit growth expected to continue in 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?

At guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue is $28.7b, +12.2% QoQ & +37.6% YoY, ~$100 million below the guide. However @ today's rate of...

William Keating

TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance in-line despite NT$ appreciation impact. Increase in 2025 US$-revenue growth to 30%, implying a weaker 4Q ...

Intel relies on TSMC for new PC chips, Nanya sees rebound in non-AI DRAM demand, PC unit growth expected to continue in 2025.