Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A glance at the growth-adjusted valuations of the Asian markets reveals that Korea and China are undervalued and India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are overvalued.</li>
<li>We take a granular look at long histories of each market’s relative valuations, and their medium-term trends relative to long term averages. We combine the conclusions with growth-adjusted valuation outlook.</li>
<li>We conclude that HK/China, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines could be in for rerating in the near term. Derating could be on the cards for India, Singapore and Thailand.</li>
</ul>


A glance at the growth-adjusted valuations of the Asian markets reveals that Korea and China are undervalued and India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are overvalued.
We take a granular look at long histories of each market’s relative valuations, and their medium-term trends relative to long term averages. We combine the conclusions with growth-adjusted valuation outlook.
We conclude that HK/China, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines could be in for rerating in the near term. Derating could be on the cards for India, Singapore and Thailand.


Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  </li>
<li>Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  </li>
<li>Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  </li>
</ul>


NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  
Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  
Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  


Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google</li>
<li>AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race</li>
<li>Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected</li>
</ul>


Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

<ul>
<li>What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. </li>
<li>At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. </li>
<li>Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  


Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities

Considering growth & ROE adjusted valns & long history of relative valns of Asian markets, we think HK/CN, Korea, Indonesia & Philippines could...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visits Taiwan for COMPUTEX Taipei, emphasizes personal connection and company's global expansion with over a thousand job...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities

​Considering growth & ROE adjusted valns & long history of relative valns of Asian markets, we think HK/CN, Korea, Indonesia & Philippines could...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

​NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visits Taiwan for COMPUTEX Taipei, emphasizes personal connection and company's global expansion with over a thousand job...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

​Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

​Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Considering growth & ROE adjusted valns & long history of relative valns of Asian markets, we think HK/CN, Korea, Indonesia & Philippines could...

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visits Taiwan for COMPUTEX Taipei, emphasizes personal connection and company's global expansion with over a thousand job...

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...