Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Global Bond Yields and the Dollar continue their move higher</li>
<li>Nasdaq prints new highs while weakness lurks beneath the surface</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Global Bond Yields and the Dollar continue their move higher
Nasdaq prints new highs while weakness lurks beneath the surface


Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin</li>
<li>Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.</li>
<li>Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.</li>
</ul>


Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.</li>
<li>We are also upgrading our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI (after being neutral since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision).</li>
<li>We dedicated last week's Int'l Compass(April 16) to Technology, and we're doing it again today. With the market breaking out from its multi-month consolidation, Technology is likely to continue leading</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.
We are also upgrading our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI (after being neutral since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision).
We dedicated last week's Int'l Compass(April 16) to Technology, and we're doing it again today. With the market breaking out from its multi-month consolidation, Technology is likely to continue leading


Overweight Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish; Technology Remains in Focus

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow</li>
<li>Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card</li>
<li>Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war </li>
</ul>


We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow
Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card
Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war 


Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...</li>
<li>...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."</li>
<li>That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...
...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."
That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term


Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Taiwan

The TWSE, or TAIEX, Index is capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The index has a base value of 100 based on its 1966 level. The index is also known as the TSEC Index.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the breakout in bond yields and the dollar, which is...

Rikki Malik

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overweight Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish; Technology Remains in Focus

Overweight Global Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish to Match Intermediate-Term Outlook; Technology Remains in Focus, Same as Last...

Vermilion Research

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on $ACWI Holding for Now; Discussed to trim exposure to Korea $EWY and Taiwan...

Vermilion Research

Overview #79 — Dragged Up or Dragged Down

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the breakout in bond yields and the dollar, which is...

Rikki Malik

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

​Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overweight Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish; Technology Remains in Focus

Overweight Global Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish to Match Intermediate-Term Outlook; Technology Remains in Focus, Same as Last...

Vermilion Research

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on $ACWI Holding for Now; Discussed to trim exposure to Korea $EWY and Taiwan...

Vermilion Research

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...