Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Alpha Sources: Taiwan (+2.6 Short IR) and Australia (+2.7) remain dominant. Korea (+1.9) shows tentative stabilization after last week's dip.</li>
<li>
Sector Warning: Zero positive IR across all sectors in both windows. Alpha generation is purely a country-selection story — sector rotation offers no edge.</li>
<li>
Tactical: Overweight Taiwan/Australia on sustained decay; underweight India (Long/Short IR: −2.1/−1.9). Tech/Semis breakdown (−1.2 Short IR) confirmed for second consecutive week. </li>
</ul>



Alpha Sources: Taiwan (+2.6 Short IR) and Australia (+2.7) remain dominant. Korea (+1.9) shows tentative stabilization after last week's dip.

Sector Warning: Zero positive IR across all sectors in both windows. Alpha generation is purely a country-selection story — sector rotation offers no edge.

Tactical: Overweight Taiwan/Australia on sustained decay; underweight India (Long/Short IR: −2.1/−1.9). Tech/Semis breakdown (−1.2 Short IR) confirmed for second consecutive week. 


Pan-Asia Radar: What's Outperforming MSCI AC Asia Ex-JP (AAXJ US), What's Crowding | Apr 13–Apr 17

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 5 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and 1 deletion for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in March.</li>
<li>This is another major inclusion for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-precision-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44938:1" rel="noopener">Hon Precision (7769 TT)</a> following the inclusion of the stock in a global index at the close on 27 February.</li>
<li>Semiconductor stocks make up half the number of changes and appear as adds and deletes. The big ETF AUM results in a round-trip trade of US$2.6bn.</li>
</ul>


There will be 5 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and 1 deletion for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in March.
This is another major inclusion for Hon Precision (7769 TT) following the inclusion of the stock in a global index at the close on 27 February.
Semiconductor stocks make up half the number of changes and appear as adds and deletes. The big ETF AUM results in a round-trip trade of US$2.6bn.


Taiwan Top 50/ Yuanta Div+ ETF Rebalance: Semis Dominate as Flow Tops US$2.6bn

<ul>
<li>There could be 5 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and 1 deletion for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-precision-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44938:1" rel="noopener">Hon Precision (7769 TT)</a> is an inclusion to a global index at the end of February, and this inclusion will add to the flow and impact for the stock.  </li>
<li>There has been a big uptick in short interest in the forecast deletes and there will be short covering on a drop in the stock prices.</li>
</ul>


There could be 5 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and 1 deletion for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in March.

Hon Precision (7769 TT) is an inclusion to a global index at the end of February, and this inclusion will add to the flow and impact for the stock.  
There has been a big uptick in short interest in the forecast deletes and there will be short covering on a drop in the stock prices.


Taiwan Top 50 / Yuanta Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Flow for the Adds; Big Impact for Deletes

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>For Asia Pac ex Japan, we forecast 266 changes (adds, deletes, migrations) for the index. Of those, 63 stocks could have over US$20m to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The forecast passive buys have outperformed the headlines indices in all major markets and there could be some profit-taking following announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.
For Asia Pac ex Japan, we forecast 266 changes (adds, deletes, migrations) for the index. Of those, 63 stocks could have over US$20m to trade from passive trackers.
The forecast passive buys have outperformed the headlines indices in all major markets and there could be some profit-taking following announcement of the changes.


Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.</li>
<li>
Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.</li>
</ul>



Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.

Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.

Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.


Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

Taiwan

The TWSE, or TAIEX, Index is capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The index has a base value of 100 based on its 1966 level. The index is also known as the TSEC Index.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Pan-Asia Radar: What's Outperforming MSCI AC Asia Ex-JP (AAXJ US), What's Crowding | Apr 13–Apr 17

Pan-Asia Radar: weekly snapshot - risk-adjusted excess returns across Asian markets/sectors vs iShares MSCI AC Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ). Updated...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Top 50/ Yuanta Div+ ETF Rebalance: Semis Dominate as Flow Tops US$2.6bn

There are 11 constituent changes across indices as round-trip flow tops US$2.6bn. The adds have run up a lot and market volatility has led to a...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Top 50 / Yuanta Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Flow for the Adds; Big Impact for Deletes

There could be 5 changes for the Top50 ETF and 1 deletion for the TWDP ETF. There is big flow for the forecast adds and big impact for the forecast...

Brian Freitas

Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

There will be over 250 changes in AP for a global index in March. The large adds have outperformed their country indices over the last few months...

Brian Freitas

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

Pan-Asia Radar: What's Outperforming MSCI AC Asia Ex-JP (AAXJ US), What's Crowding | Apr 13–Apr 17

Pan-Asia Radar: weekly snapshot - risk-adjusted excess returns across Asian markets/sectors vs iShares MSCI AC Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ). Updated...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Top 50/ Yuanta Div+ ETF Rebalance: Semis Dominate as Flow Tops US$2.6bn

There are 11 constituent changes across indices as round-trip flow tops US$2.6bn. The adds have run up a lot and market volatility has led to a...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Top 50 / Yuanta Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Flow for the Adds; Big Impact for Deletes

There could be 5 changes for the Top50 ETF and 1 deletion for the TWDP ETF. There is big flow for the forecast adds and big impact for the forecast...

Brian Freitas

Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

There will be over 250 changes in AP for a global index in March. The large adds have outperformed their country indices over the last few months...

Brian Freitas

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

​The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.