Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.

The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

Department store numbers have dropped by a third in the past 13 years to just 199 and another third are likely to disappear this decadeThe hope that many of these properties would find new life as shopping buildings is now looking far less likely and, with Covid worsening the problem, an accelerated hollowing out of central retail areas looks unavoidable in many small cities.We are likely to see department store numbers drop to around 150 over the next five years.The impact on both the department store sector and regional retailing is profound.

Department store numbers have dropped by a third in the past 13 years to just 199 and another third are likely to disappear this decadeThe hope that many of these properties would find new life as shopping buildings is now looking far less likely and, with Covid worsening the problem, an accelerated hollowing out of central retail areas looks unavoidable in many small cities.We are likely to see department store numbers drop to around 150 over the next five years.The impact on both the department store sector and regional retailing is profound.

Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores.

Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores. 

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

• RESULTS - 6th APRIL •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/143/original/image_48903433121617743112480.png?1617743113" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199143"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi (7649 JP)</a> should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-a-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20755:1" rel="noopener">San-A (2659 JP)</a> continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/144/original/image_43671087431617743435802.png?1617743436" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199144"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/145/original/image_77617965041617743669042.png?1617743669" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199145"></figure>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/146/original/image_76585369451617743732286.png?1617743732" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199146"></figure>FORECASTS/REVISIONS - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>  revises up but to below TTM, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/147/original/image_68585463461617743969672.png?1617743970" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199147"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/149/original/image_25082609781617744023412.png?1617744024" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199149"></figure>

• RESULTS - 6th APRIL • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, San-A (2659 JP) continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Lawson (2651 JP)  revises up but to below TTM, while Takashimaya (8233 JP) expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06  -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.

Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Japan

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

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Takashimaya (8233 JP)

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

A complete review of the Japanese retail sector in the last 18 months, format by format, category by category, providing key trends and winners &...

Michael Causton

The Japanese Department Store Debacle

The Japanese department sector has been in retreat for a long time but the decline accelerated from the start of Covid. Unfortunately, an end to...

Michael Causton

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

A review of the 2020 performance of Japanese GMS chains and department stores. There is more growth for food-based GMS retailers but department...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Department stores have been hit hard by the current crisis but were struggling before that. As a result, sales have fallen to 1975 levels. Sales...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

A complete review of the Japanese retail sector in the last 18 months, format by format, category by category, providing key trends and winners &...

Michael Causton

The Japanese Department Store Debacle

The Japanese department sector has been in retreat for a long time but the decline accelerated from the start of Covid. Unfortunately, an end to...

Michael Causton

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

A review of the 2020 performance of Japanese GMS chains and department stores. There is more growth for food-based GMS retailers but department...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Department stores have been hit hard by the current crisis but were struggling before that. As a result, sales have fallen to 1975 levels. Sales...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson