Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>J-Front Retailing, a Japanese department store operator, will announce full-year results on April 11.</li>
<li>We expect FY2/23 guidance to be more optimistic as Japan normalises post COVID. </li>
<li>Pent up demand for luxury goods to drive recovery of department stores. J-Front is still trading below book value.</li>
</ul>


J-Front Retailing, a Japanese department store operator, will announce full-year results on April 11.
We expect FY2/23 guidance to be more optimistic as Japan normalises post COVID. 
Pent up demand for luxury goods to drive recovery of department stores. J-Front is still trading below book value.


J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nikkei reported yesterday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> is in final negotiations to sell its underperforming department store business Sogo Seibu, amidst pressure from several of its investors.</li>
<li>The company has indirectly confirmed the news by saying that they are considering changes to Seven &amp; I’s business portfolio including the sale of the Sogo &amp; Seibu business.</li>
<li>The disposal of underperforming department stores could increase the efficiency of capital usage and generate upside to shareholders returns and enable the company to focus on growth through geographic expansion.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei reported yesterday that Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) is in final negotiations to sell its underperforming department store business Sogo Seibu, amidst pressure from several of its investors.
The company has indirectly confirmed the news by saying that they are considering changes to Seven &amp; I’s business portfolio including the sale of the Sogo &amp; Seibu business.
The disposal of underperforming department stores could increase the efficiency of capital usage and generate upside to shareholders returns and enable the company to focus on growth through geographic expansion.


Seven & I to Sell The Loss Making Department Store Business Amidst Pressure From Investors

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Department stores are under unprecedented pressure. Most stores in Tokyo were entirely closed for April with just a few food services available in some locations. The sector was already set to reduce store numbers and this gradual trend could now become a torrent. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L (3099 JP)</a> looks worse off than some of its peers.</p>

Department stores are under unprecedented pressure. Most stores in Tokyo were entirely closed for April with just a few food services available in some locations. The sector was already set to reduce store numbers and this gradual trend could now become a torrent. Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L (3099 JP) looks worse off than some of its peers.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I's (3382 JP)</a> Sogo Seibu will undergo significant restructuring as part of the cull of Seven &amp; I’s poorest performing businesses.</p>
<p>The department store has <strong>slashed the number of stores in half since the 1990s with just 15 today, but five more will now close,</strong> with one more converted to a mall.</p>
<p>Other department stores have already earmarked 10 stores for closure in 2019, but Seven &amp; I’s decisiveness will encourage even more doors to shut.</p>
<p><strong>Since 2008, 68 department stores have closed and sales of almost ¥2 trillion have been lost from the sector. After reaching a peak of 311 stores in 1999, the total number of stores will fall to 200 during 2020.</strong></p>
<p>This is negative for sector growth but we continue to be optimistic about the remaining chains' potential to improve operating margins.</p>

Seven &amp; I's (3382 JP) Sogo Seibu will undergo significant restructuring as part of the cull of Seven &amp; I’s poorest performing businesses.
The department store has slashed the number of stores in half since the 1990s with just 15 today, but five more will now close, with one more converted to a mall.
Other department stores have already earmarked 10 stores for closure in 2019, but Seven &amp; I’s decisiveness will encourage even more doors to shut.
Since 2008, 68 department stores have closed and sales of almost ¥2 trillion have been lost from the sector. After reaching a peak of 311 stores in 1999, the total number of stores will fall to 200 during 2020.
This is negative for sector growth but we continue to be optimistic about the remaining chains' potential to improve operating margins.

Seven & I: Sogo Seibu to Close 30% of Remaining Stores

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> • </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/226/original/2019-06-13_16-47-07.png?1560412038" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90226"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.</p><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/196/original/2019-06-13_11-15-27.png?1560392157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90196"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-june-relative-price-scores-market-sectors-peer-groups-more-of-the-same" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30323">🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same</a>, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/202/original/2019-06-13_13-06-49.png?1560398835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1">Alfresa (2784 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eiken-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12675:1">Eiken Chemical (4549 JP)</a>.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/201/original/2019-06-13_13-04-38.png?1560398780" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/203/original/2019-06-13_13-08-46.png?1560398945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90203"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/204/original/2019-06-13_13-09-37.png?1560399049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90204"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/205/original/2019-06-13_13-12-01.png?1560399142" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90205"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/316/original/2019-06-15_19-45-47.png?1560595558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90316"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-o-energy-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17701:1">K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP)</a>.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/207/original/2019-06-13_13-14-03.png?1560399270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90207"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Goldwin (8111 JP) has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, 🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Descente (8114 JP), Alfresa (2784 JP), FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP), Kikkoman (2801 JP), Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP), and Eiken Chemical (4549 JP).  
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP).
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

Japan

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Takashimaya (8233 JP)

J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

J-Front Retailing is a beneficiary of COVID normalisation and eventual resumption of inbound tourism. The restructuring and cost cuts bode well for...

Mark Chadwick

Seven & I to Sell The Loss Making Department Store Business Amidst Pressure From Investors

Nikkei reported yesterday that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) is in final negotiations to sell its underperforming department store business Sogo...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Isetan-Mitsukoshi Losses Rising

Department stores are under unprecedented pressure. Most stores in Tokyo were entirely closed for April with just a few food services available in...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Sogo Seibu to Close 30% of Remaining Stores

Seven & I's (3382 JP) Sogo Seibu will undergo significant restructuring as part of the cull of Seven & I’s poorest performing...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)