TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.</li>
<li>Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.</li>
<li>Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.</li>
</ul>


A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.
Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.
Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.


Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a> is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vng-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112269" rel="noopener">VNG IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and VNG’s underlying cash burn.</li>
</ul>



VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.
In VNG IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and VNG’s underlying cash burn.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a> is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.    </li>
<li>VNG is the number one mobile games publisher in Vietnam. VNG’s Zalo, Zing MP3 and Bao Moi applications are Vietnam’s leading messaging, music streaming and online news applications. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on the core games business’ improving KPIs, return to growth, good revenue visibility, and reducing dependence on critical partners combined with VNG’s improving margin.</li>
</ul>



VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.    
VNG is the number one mobile games publisher in Vietnam. VNG’s Zalo, Zing MP3 and Bao Moi applications are Vietnam’s leading messaging, music streaming and online news applications. 
The bull case rests on the core games business’ improving KPIs, return to growth, good revenue visibility, and reducing dependence on critical partners combined with VNG’s improving margin.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Take-Two had a disappointing result and failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street while delivering wider-than-expected losses.</li><li>The management claims that its post-launch content and new game releases have received significant critical acclaim and on the basis of units sold in the Americas, the company has the highest catalog sales.</li><li>Empires and Puzzles was the top performer and Rollic's Balls'n Ropes secured the top spot for U.S.'s most downloaded games.</li></ul>

Take-Two had a disappointing result and failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street while delivering wider-than-expected losses.The management claims that its post-launch content and new game releases have received significant critical acclaim and on the basis of units sold in the Americas, the company has the highest catalog sales.Empires and Puzzles was the top performer and Rollic's Balls'n Ropes secured the top spot for U.S.'s most downloaded games.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.: Major Drivers

United States

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. develops, markets, distributes, and publishes interactive entertainment software games and accessories.  The Company's products are for console systems, handheld gaming systems and personal computers (including smartphones and tablets) and are delivered through physical retail, digital download, online and cloud streaming services.

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc (TTWO US)

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Take Two Interactive Software, Inc (TTWO US)

Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision is a homerun by any measure: strategically, financially, and on valuation. We expect the level of synergies...

Aaron Gabin

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

VNG IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and...

Arun George

VNG IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on the core games business’ improving KPIs, return to growth, good revenue visibility, and reducing dependence on critical...

Arun George

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.: Major Drivers

Take-Two had a disappointing result and failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street while delivering wider-than-expected losses. The...

Baptista Research

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