Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.5bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF will be selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> at the same time as the Select Sector and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.5bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF will be selling Broadcom (AVGO US) at the same time as the Select Sector and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index trackers.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$15.5bn Flow Post Capping

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electronic-arts-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1179:1" rel="noopener">Electronic Arts</a>. Largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linde-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35233:1" rel="noopener">Linde</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1425:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Corp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/take-two-interactive-software-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14948:1" rel="noopener">Take Two Interactive</a>.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.
There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.
The largest inflows will be in Amazon.com, Tesla, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet (GOOGL US) and Electronic Arts. Largest outflows are from Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Linde, Mcdonald's Corp and Take Two Interactive.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. reported a stable start to the fiscal year 2025, with first-quarter net bookings of $1.2 billion aligning with expectations.</li><li>The management expressed confidence in their strategic outlook and reaffirmed growth projections for the upcoming fiscal years, hinting at a robust pipeline committed to driving growth through fiscal 2026 and 2027.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. reported a stable start to the fiscal year 2025, with first-quarter net bookings of $1.2 billion aligning with expectations.The management expressed confidence in their strategic outlook and reaffirmed growth projections for the upcoming fiscal years, hinting at a robust pipeline committed to driving growth through fiscal 2026 and 2027.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Take-Two Interactive Software: A Robust Pipeline of New Games Can Be A Key Growth Catalyst! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.</li>
<li>There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conocophillips" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18090:1" rel="noopener">Conocophillips</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix</a> while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costco-wholesale-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18404:1" rel="noopener">Costco Wholesale</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.
There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.
The largest inflows are expected in Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com and Netflix while the largest outflows will be from Microsoft, NVIDIA, Chevron, Procter &amp; Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Costco Wholesale and Meta Platforms.


Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

United States

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. develops, markets, distributes, and publishes interactive entertainment software games and accessories.  The Company's products are for console systems, handheld gaming systems and personal computers (including smartphones and tablets) and are delivered through physical retail, digital download, online and cloud streaming services.

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc (TTWO US)

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Take Two Interactive Software, Inc (TTWO US)

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Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

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Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

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Sumeet Singh

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Baptista Research

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Brian Freitas

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