Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> revised FY25 revenue guidance upward to ¥1900B on robust Xtandi performance and favourable forex movement. Core profits and margins will also see upward revisions and expansions.</li>
<li>The company will record an impairment charge of ¥176B for intangible assets this fiscal. As a result, FY25 operating profit on reported basis will come down to ¥11B from ¥80B.</li>
<li>Recently, Astellas has received approval for Vyloy and label expansion approval for Padcev in China. Label expansion application for Izervay in the U.S. has been accepted by the FDA.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) revised FY25 revenue guidance upward to ¥1900B on robust Xtandi performance and favourable forex movement. Core profits and margins will also see upward revisions and expansions.
The company will record an impairment charge of ¥176B for intangible assets this fiscal. As a result, FY25 operating profit on reported basis will come down to ¥11B from ¥80B.
Recently, Astellas has received approval for Vyloy and label expansion approval for Padcev in China. Label expansion application for Izervay in the U.S. has been accepted by the FDA.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Xtandi & Forex Lead To Guidance Revision, Impairment Losses One Off Burnt

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BeiGene has received FDA approved for Tevimbra for the first-line treatment of certain types of gastric cancers. Innovent announced a collaboration and exclusive license agreement with Roche for an ADC.</li>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical got clinical trial approval in China for Leuprorelin extended-release Injection. Sichuan Kelun-Biotech received China approval for tagitanlimab in nasopharyngeal cancer.</li>
<li>Hutchmed China is divesting its 45% equity interest in joint venture for $608M. Yuhan Corp has received European approval for its lung cancer drug Leclaza.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene has received FDA approved for Tevimbra for the first-line treatment of certain types of gastric cancers. Innovent announced a collaboration and exclusive license agreement with Roche for an ADC.
CSPC Pharmaceutical got clinical trial approval in China for Leuprorelin extended-release Injection. Sichuan Kelun-Biotech received China approval for tagitanlimab in nasopharyngeal cancer.
Hutchmed China is divesting its 45% equity interest in joint venture for $608M. Yuhan Corp has received European approval for its lung cancer drug Leclaza.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 5)- Beigene, Innovent Biologics, CSPC Pharma, Hutchmed, Yuhan, Lupin

<ul>
<li>Eoflow Has been ordered by the U.S. Court to pay $452M as damages. Celltrion has submitted clinical trial application for CT-P44 (Darzalex biosimilar) to the FDA.</li>
<li>Takeda Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive licensing agreement to develop and commercialize a late-stage oncology drug candidate. Medipal and JCR Pharmaceuticals initiated the Phase I/II trial of JR-446 in Japan.</li>
<li>SanBio has completed second production run for Akuugo suspension for intracranial implantation. Aurobindo Pharma’s U.S. arm Eugia has received final approval from the FDA to manufacture and market Pazopanib Tablets.</li>
</ul>


Eoflow Has been ordered by the U.S. Court to pay $452M as damages. Celltrion has submitted clinical trial application for CT-P44 (Darzalex biosimilar) to the FDA.
Takeda Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive licensing agreement to develop and commercialize a late-stage oncology drug candidate. Medipal and JCR Pharmaceuticals initiated the Phase I/II trial of JR-446 in Japan.
SanBio has completed second production run for Akuugo suspension for intracranial implantation. Aurobindo Pharma’s U.S. arm Eugia has received final approval from the FDA to manufacture and market Pazopanib Tablets.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 8)- Eoflow, Celltrion, Takeda, Medipal, SanBio, Aurobindo Pharma

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For full-year 2024, sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach about RMB240 million, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations. RMB500 million sales of olverembatinib is expected in 2025.</li>
<li>Market value of US$1.25 – 1.9 billion is reasonable range for Ascentage if just considering olverembatinib alone. The peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass olverembatinib in overseas markets. </li>
<li>The next big catalyst is the potential licensing cooperation with MNCs for APG-2575, if reaches, would push Ascentage’s market value to surpass HUTCHMED, as prospects of APG-2575 is basically guaranteed.</li>
</ul>


For full-year 2024, sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach about RMB240 million, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations. RMB500 million sales of olverembatinib is expected in 2025.
Market value of US$1.25 – 1.9 billion is reasonable range for Ascentage if just considering olverembatinib alone. The peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass olverembatinib in overseas markets. 
The next big catalyst is the potential licensing cooperation with MNCs for APG-2575, if reaches, would push Ascentage’s market value to surpass HUTCHMED, as prospects of APG-2575 is basically guaranteed.


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) - The Future Valuation Leap Is Worth Looking Forward To

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED will receive a US$20 million milestone payment from its partner Takeda. In our view, peak sales of fruquintinib is expected to reach about US$700 million in overseas markets.</li>
<li>After the Head of AstraZeneca China has been detained by authorities, AstraZeneca's future commercialization would be affected, which will have a negative impact on savolitinib and HUTCHMED in short term.</li>
<li>Reasonable market value of HUTCHMED based on the three major products is about US$2.7-3.3 billion assuming P/S of 4. If market value is below US$2.5 billion, HUTCHMED is undervalued.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED will receive a US$20 million milestone payment from its partner Takeda. In our view, peak sales of fruquintinib is expected to reach about US$700 million in overseas markets.
After the Head of AstraZeneca China has been detained by authorities, AstraZeneca's future commercialization would be affected, which will have a negative impact on savolitinib and HUTCHMED in short term.
Reasonable market value of HUTCHMED based on the three major products is about US$2.7-3.3 billion assuming P/S of 4. If market value is below US$2.5 billion, HUTCHMED is undervalued.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - The Fundamentals Remain Strong

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Xtandi & Forex Lead To Guidance Revision, Impairment Losses One Off Burnt

Astellas Pharma raises FY25 revenue guidance to ¥1900B from ¥1,800B. The company is recording ¥176B impairment charge for intangible assets, which...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 5)- Beigene, Innovent Biologics, CSPC Pharma, Hutchmed, Yuhan, Lupin

APAC healthcare companies got approvals for new products as well as clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and collaborations...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 8)- Eoflow, Celltrion, Takeda, Medipal, SanBio, Aurobindo Pharma

The insight covers key developments in prominent APAC healthcare companies. These developments are expected to impact the financials of the...

Tina Banerjee

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) - The Future Valuation Leap Is Worth Looking Forward To

Olverembatinib sales is expected to reach RMB240 million in 2024, RMB500 million in 2025. Reasonable market value is US$1.25-1.9 billion. Licensing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - The Fundamentals Remain Strong

HUTCHMED receives $20 million milestone from Takeda. Fruquintinib peak sales is expected to reach $1 billion.AstraZeneca China Head's detainment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Xtandi & Forex Lead To Guidance Revision, Impairment Losses One Off Burnt

​Astellas Pharma raises FY25 revenue guidance to ¥1900B from ¥1,800B. The company is recording ¥176B impairment charge for intangible assets, which...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 5)- Beigene, Innovent Biologics, CSPC Pharma, Hutchmed, Yuhan, Lupin

APAC healthcare companies got approvals for new products as well as clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and collaborations...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 8)- Eoflow, Celltrion, Takeda, Medipal, SanBio, Aurobindo Pharma

The insight covers key developments in prominent APAC healthcare companies. These developments are expected to impact the financials of the...

Tina Banerjee

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) - The Future Valuation Leap Is Worth Looking Forward To

Olverembatinib sales is expected to reach RMB240 million in 2024, RMB500 million in 2025. Reasonable market value is US$1.25-1.9 billion. Licensing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - The Fundamentals Remain Strong

​HUTCHMED receives $20 million milestone from Takeda. Fruquintinib peak sales is expected to reach $1 billion.AstraZeneca China Head's detainment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Astellas Pharma raises FY25 revenue guidance to ¥1900B from ¥1,800B. The company is recording ¥176B impairment charge for intangible assets, which...

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - The Fundamentals Remain Strong

HUTCHMED receives $20 million milestone from Takeda. Fruquintinib peak sales is expected to reach $1 billion.AstraZeneca China Head's detainment...