Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Dollar continues to trade at the strong end of its band  resulting in upward pressure on HIBOR in turn causing a further unwind of the HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>HSI shows the strongest market breadth in 15 years as nearly all members trade above 200 DMA.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xtep-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18118:1" rel="noopener">Xtep International (1368 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> all had breakouts to form uptrends.  All are part of the consumption sector in China
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Dollar continues to trade at the strong end of its band  resulting in upward pressure on HIBOR in turn causing a further unwind of the HKD carry trade.
HSI shows the strongest market breadth in 15 years as nearly all members trade above 200 DMA.

Xtep International (1368 HK) , Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and China Education Group (839 HK) all had breakouts to form uptrends.  All are part of the consumption sector in China



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (OCTOBER 14)

<ul>
<li>Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.</li>
<li>The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hong-kong-the-glass-is-half-full-time-to-buy-beta" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:134396" rel="noopener">Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta</a> .</li>
<li>The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.</li>
</ul>


Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.
The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta .
The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> could support a higher stock price.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a> was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.
</li>
</ul>


The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag

Weibo (9898 HK)Weibo Corp (WB US) was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) could support a higher stock price.


China East Education (667 HK) was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>TAL Education Group delivered a robust set of results in its fiscal first quarter of 2025, showcasing significant revenue growth and strategic expansions in both its learning services and content solutions sectors.</li><li>These outcomes reflect the company's focused execution on its operational strategies and its adaptability to the evolving educational needs.</li><li>Financially, TAL Education Group reported a net revenue of USD 414.2 million, a substantial increase of 50.4% from the previous year, paralleled by a 56.9% increase in RMB terms.</li></ul>

TAL Education Group delivered a robust set of results in its fiscal first quarter of 2025, showcasing significant revenue growth and strategic expansions in both its learning services and content solutions sectors.These outcomes reflect the company's focused execution on its operational strategies and its adaptability to the evolving educational needs.Financially, TAL Education Group reported a net revenue of USD 414.2 million, a substantial increase of 50.4% from the previous year, paralleled by a 56.9% increase in RMB terms.

TAL Education Group: A Tale Of Expansion and Diversification in Learning Devices! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Consumer sectors in China are gaining more focus as the government lays out steps to increase domestic consumption.</li>
<li>Hong Kong markets performed well relative to region during recent market turmoil.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-reinsurance-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:993:1" rel="noopener">China Reinsurance (Group) (1508 HK)</a> experienced breakouts and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a> had a breakdown. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a> is more positive.
</li>
</ul>


Consumer sectors in China are gaining more focus as the government lays out steps to increase domestic consumption.
Hong Kong markets performed well relative to region during recent market turmoil.

China Education Group (839 HK) and China Reinsurance (Group) (1508 HK) experienced breakouts and China Telecom (H) (728 HK) had a breakdown. Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK) is more positive.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 9)

China

TAL Education Group provides educational services. The Company offers comprehensive tutoring services to students covering core academic subjects such as mathematics, English, Chinese, physics, chemistry, political science, history, and biology. TAL Education Group serves students in China.

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TAL Education (TAL US)

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Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

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Conglomerate stocks in Hong Kong have outperformed this month. Weibo target price is upgraded and Dongfang Electric is intiated BUY. CEE saw a...

David Mudd

TAL Education Group: A Tale Of Expansion and Diversification in Learning Devices! - Major Drivers

TAL Education Group delivered a robust set of results in its fiscal first quarter of 2025, showcasing significant revenue growth and strategic...

Baptista Research

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 9)

HK markets had lower volatility than other regional markets this week. China Ed and China Re had technical break outs while China Tel broke...

David Mudd

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