Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing (2427 JP)</a>; no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.</li>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> shares.</li>
</ul>


Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in Outsourcing (2427 JP); no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.
Stay long MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.
Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid JSR Corp (4185 JP) shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a> is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.</li>
<li>Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share. </li>
<li>Top investors (&gt;45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.
</li>
</ul>


Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM) is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.
Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share. 
Top investors (&gt;45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.



Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

<ul>
<li>Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.</li>
<li>The accretion trade is going to plan as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> sells <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>; and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.</li>
</ul>


Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for JSR Corp (4185 JP) are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.
The accretion trade is going to plan as Prosus NV (PRX NA) sells Tencent (700 HK); and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

<ul>
<li>Rolling stock manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a>  confirms the interest of a Hungarian investor in launching a takeover bid at €5/share, 28% premium, 10.5 EV/24e EBITDA.</li>
<li>The implied market cap is €617 million and the implied EV is €837 million. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is €4.76/share, so the potential offer price seems adequate.</li>
<li>The 17 November closing share price implies a 44% probability of an offer (12% gross spread, 12% gain since disclosure), which indicates that the outcome seems uncertain.</li>
</ul>


Rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM)  confirms the interest of a Hungarian investor in launching a takeover bid at €5/share, 28% premium, 10.5 EV/24e EBITDA.
The implied market cap is €617 million and the implied EV is €837 million. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is €4.76/share, so the potential offer price seems adequate.
The 17 November closing share price implies a 44% probability of an offer (12% gross spread, 12% gain since disclosure), which indicates that the outcome seems uncertain.


Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the end of the offer period, Siemens Energy will hold 631,538,509 shares of Siemens Gamesa, representing 92.72% of the share capital (below the 96.71% squeeze-out threshold condition).</li>
<li>Siemens Energy will execute plan B: a standing purchase order beginning 23 December followed by an EGM that will approve delisting.</li>
<li>Unicaja Banco SA (UNI SM) will replace Siemens Gamesa in the Ibex 35 index. Talgo (TLGO SM) will replace Unicaja in the Ibex Medium Cap.</li>
</ul>


After the end of the offer period, Siemens Energy will hold 631,538,509 shares of Siemens Gamesa, representing 92.72% of the share capital (below the 96.71% squeeze-out threshold condition).
Siemens Energy will execute plan B: a standing purchase order beginning 23 December followed by an EGM that will approve delisting.
Unicaja Banco SA (UNI SM) will replace Siemens Gamesa in the Ibex 35 index. Talgo (TLGO SM) will replace Unicaja in the Ibex Medium Cap.


Spain

Talgo S.A. is a Spain-based specialized rolling stock engineering company focused on the designing, manufacturing and servicing of lightweight trains.

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Talgo SA (TLGO SM)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Playing with Trains

Talgo is in play. A Hungarian investor interested in acquiring Talgo SA at €5/share, a 28% premium. The potential offer price seems adequate, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Siemens Energy/Siemens Gamesa: Delisting

After the end of the offer period, Siemens Energy will hold 631,538,509 shares of Siemens Gamesa, representing 92.72% of the share capital (below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

​Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Playing with Trains

Talgo is in play. A ​Hungarian investor interested in acquiring Talgo SA at €5/share, a 28% premium. The potential offer price seems adequate, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Siemens Energy/Siemens Gamesa: Delisting

After the end of the offer period, Siemens Energy will hold 631,538,509 shares of Siemens Gamesa, representing 92.72% of the share capital (below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Talgo is in play. A Hungarian investor interested in acquiring Talgo SA at €5/share, a 28% premium. The potential offer price seems adequate, but...