External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China and India’s thermal coal import has remained weak in 10M25, down 7-8% yoy, despite ST stabilization from seasonal restocking.</li><li>Weak demand is partly balanced by constrained Indonesia’s production; government’s plan to cap 2026 production should be viewed positively.</li><li>We maintain Neutral rating given unexciting LT outlook; ST price seasonal strength should be sustained in the upcoming winter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China and India’s thermal coal import has remained weak in 10M25, down 7-8% yoy, despite ST stabilization from seasonal restocking.Weak demand is partly balanced by constrained Indonesia’s production; government’s plan to cap 2026 production should be viewed positively.We maintain Neutral rating given unexciting LT outlook; ST price seasonal strength should be sustained in the upcoming winter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Demand Outlook Remains Soft, Though Seasonal Price Strength Still in Play (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.</li><li>While current prices already near cost support levels, ST price rebound may be capped by weak imports as restocking only starts by end of 3Q.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on the sector with preferences for UNTR&gt; ADRO&gt; AADI&gt; ITMG&gt; PTBA</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.While current prices already near cost support levels, ST price rebound may be capped by weak imports as restocking only starts by end of 3Q.We maintain a Neutral rating on the sector with preferences for UNTR&gt; ADRO&gt; AADI&gt; ITMG&gt; PTBAContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Coal Price Downside May Be Limited, but Weak Demand May Cap ST Rebound (NEUTRAL)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Coal companies under our coverage reported mixed earnings in 1Q25.</li><li>AADI’s net profit declined by -29.2% YoY to USD196.0 mn, mainly due to a lower revenue by -11.4% YoY given ASP contraction by - 11.1% YoY.</li><li>PTBA also reported a sharp decrease in net profit by -50.5% YoY to IDR391.5 bn, despite revenue increase of +5.8%, as margins were squeezed by a surge in fuel costs (+170.1% YoY) and mining services expenses (+26.3% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal companies under our coverage reported mixed earnings in 1Q25.AADI’s net profit declined by -29.2% YoY to USD196.0 mn, mainly due to a lower revenue by -11.4% YoY given ASP contraction by - 11.1% YoY.PTBA also reported a sharp decrease in net profit by -50.5% YoY to IDR391.5 bn, despite revenue increase of +5.8%, as margins were squeezed by a surge in fuel costs (+170.1% YoY) and mining services expenses (+26.3% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.</li><li>Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. </li><li>We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

<ul><li>China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).</li><li>This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.</li><li>This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)

Coal: Demand Outlook Remains Soft, Though Seasonal Price Strength Still in Play (NEUTRAL)

Weak demand is partly balanced by constrained Indonesia’s production; government’s plan to cap 2026 production should be viewed positively.

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal: Coal Price Downside May Be Limited, but Weak Demand May Cap ST Rebound (NEUTRAL)

Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Mining Sectoral Update July 9, 2025

AADI’s net profit declined by -29.2% YoY to USD196.0 mn, mainly due to a lower revenue by -11.4% YoY given ASP contraction by - 11.1% YoY.

MNC Sekuritas

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Sectoral Update December 3, 2024

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY. This was supported by import volume of...

MNC Sekuritas

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