Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tandem-diabetes-care-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20893:1" rel="noopener">Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)</a> reported underwhelming Q2 results, with both revenue and EPS missing consensus. Adjusted EBITDA declined and adjusted operating loss increased on a year-over-year basis.</li>
<li>To reflect lower sales visibility, the company has lowered 2023 guidance. The company has guided for 2023 sales of at least $785M, compared with earlier guidance of $885–900M.</li>
<li>Tandem has also withdrawn correlating year for its long-term target. Achievement of long-term target is highly dependent on the adoption of the company’s recently approved insulin delivery system, Mobi.</li>
</ul>



Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US) reported underwhelming Q2 results, with both revenue and EPS missing consensus. Adjusted EBITDA declined and adjusted operating loss increased on a year-over-year basis.
To reflect lower sales visibility, the company has lowered 2023 guidance. The company has guided for 2023 sales of at least $785M, compared with earlier guidance of $885–900M.
Tandem has also withdrawn correlating year for its long-term target. Achievement of long-term target is highly dependent on the adoption of the company’s recently approved insulin delivery system, Mobi.


Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US): Q2 Sales Declined, Margin Deteriorated; 2023 Guidance Revised Lower

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tandem-diabetes-care-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20893:1" rel="noopener">Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)</a> has been consistently missing earnings expectations. This is taking a toll on the share price performance, with shares plunging ~61% over the last one year.</li>
<li>Tandem’s nearest rival has recently launched its new insulin pump in the U.S. This will affect Tandem’s Q2 sales growth. Tandem guided for 10–12% revenue growth in 2023.</li>
<li>Tandem is a hugely beaten down stock. However, it will be wise to wait for Tandem to launch new product, ensure its good uptake amid competition, and exhibit earnings stability.</li>
</ul>



Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US) has been consistently missing earnings expectations. This is taking a toll on the share price performance, with shares plunging ~61% over the last one year.
Tandem’s nearest rival has recently launched its new insulin pump in the U.S. This will affect Tandem’s Q2 sales growth. Tandem guided for 10–12% revenue growth in 2023.
Tandem is a hugely beaten down stock. However, it will be wise to wait for Tandem to launch new product, ensure its good uptake amid competition, and exhibit earnings stability.


Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US): Missed Earnings + Severe Competition = A Bitter Pill to Swallow

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 25 May, when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> enter into a SPA with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>'s CEO, with a follow-on Tender Offer, the whole construct looked pretty clean.</li>
<li>Then in August <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insulet-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5252:1" rel="noopener">Insulet Corp (PODD US)</a> launched its lawsuit, which in hindsight, should have been expected. Then earlier this month, news surfaced concerning a stock-backed loan to the CEO.</li>
<li>Now the CEO is selling, presumably to repay his collateralized loan. Shares are down 38% since the resumption of trading, and are now at a whopping 122% spread to terms. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 25 May, when Medtronic Plc (MDT US) enter into a SPA with EOFlow (294090 KS)'s CEO, with a follow-on Tender Offer, the whole construct looked pretty clean.
Then in August Insulet Corp (PODD US) launched its lawsuit, which in hindsight, should have been expected. Then earlier this month, news surfaced concerning a stock-backed loan to the CEO.
Now the CEO is selling, presumably to repay his collateralized loan. Shares are down 38% since the resumption of trading, and are now at a whopping 122% spread to terms. 


Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

<ul>
<li>Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.</li>
<li>The accretion trade is going to plan as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> sells <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>; and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.</li>
</ul>


Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for JSR Corp (4185 JP) are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.
The accretion trade is going to plan as Prosus NV (PRX NA) sells Tencent (700 HK); and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

United States

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. produces medical devices. The Company designs, develops, and commercializes products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. Tandem Diabetes Care offers its products to the medical industries in the United States.

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)