Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.
We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>JSW Energy: Higher realisation and increased generation at the Vijayanagar and hydro plants boosted Q3FY22 PAT by 126% YoY to INR3.2bn (above ours and consensus estimate). Net generation, however, declined 2.6% YoY to 4.5bn units, owing to lower generation across the Ratnagiri plant (on plant maintenance). Accordingly, PLF declined for the Ratnagiri stations, but was up for Vijayanagar and hydro plants; it was largely flat for the Barmer station. EBITDA too increased 31% YoY, aided by an improved topline and flat fuel cost (given job work arrangement by the company).</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

JSW Energy: Higher realisation and increased generation at the Vijayanagar and hydro plants boosted Q3FY22 PAT by 126% YoY to INR3.2bn (above ours and consensus estimate). Net generation, however, declined 2.6% YoY to 4.5bn units, owing to lower generation across the Ratnagiri plant (on plant maintenance). Accordingly, PLF declined for the Ratnagiri stations, but was up for Vijayanagar and hydro plants; it was largely flat for the Barmer station. EBITDA too increased 31% YoY, aided by an improved topline and flat fuel cost (given job work arrangement by the company).
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: L&T Infotech, ICICI Lombard, JSW Energy, Tata Elxsi

<p>Tata Elxsi: We downgrade Tata Elxsi (TELX) to REDUCE (ADD earlier), based on diminishing margin of safety at 43x FY23E and following an in-line Q1 (both revenue and margin). While we remain positive on the company's prospects and growth leadership in ER&amp;D (24/26% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY21-24E), the unfavourable risk-reward can be construed from (1) concentrated growth pockets with ~25% of business driving ~50% of growth (IDV and medical devices-EPD), (2) reducing growth premium vs. ER&amp;D peer, and (3) the fact that its margin is currently at a peak (32.8% EBITDA margin adj.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Tata Elxsi: We downgrade Tata Elxsi (TELX) to REDUCE (ADD earlier), based on diminishing margin of safety at 43x FY23E and following an in-line Q1 (both revenue and margin). While we remain positive on the company's prospects and growth leadership in ER&amp;D (24/26% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY21-24E), the unfavourable risk-reward can be construed from (1) concentrated growth pockets with ~25% of business driving ~50% of growth (IDV and medical devices-EPD), (2) reducing growth premium vs. ER&amp;D peer, and (3) the fact that its margin is currently at a peak (32.8% EBITDA margin adj.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Elxsi, L&T Infotech

<div><p>The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 6.6 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.</p></div><div>
<p>The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.</p>
<p>At the next recategorization in July 2021, we see 7 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 13 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the 16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. There are 3 recent listings that will enter the mid cap segment with over 18 joining the small cap segment.</p>
<p>Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.</p>
</div>

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 6.6 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.
The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.
At the next recategorization in July 2021, we see 7 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 13 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the 16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. There are 3 recent listings that will enter the mid cap segment with over 18 joining the small cap segment.
Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.


India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management

<div><p>Last evening post market close, the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) published a list of three stocks that would be excluded from the Futures and Options segment of the market with effect from December 27. The list includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hexaware-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7882:1">Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-elxsi-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13949:1">Tata Elxsi Ltd (TELX IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a>.  </p></div><div><p>In our earlier Insights, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/india-equity-derivatives-the-tail-wags-the-dog" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30878">India Equity Derivatives - The Tail Wags the Dog</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-tail-wags-the-dog-redux" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31238">The Tail Wags the Dog Redux</a>, we highlighted the performance of stocks that were excluded from the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market in April and September this year and we recommend going short a basket of the three excluded stocks against their peers as a short term play.</p></div>

Last evening post market close, the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) published a list of three stocks that would be excluded from the Futures and Options segment of the market with effect from December 27. The list includes Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), Tata Elxsi Ltd (TELX IN) and Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN).  In our earlier Insights, India Equity Derivatives - The Tail Wags the Dog and The Tail Wags the Dog Redux, we highlighted the performance of stocks that were excluded from the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market in April and September this year and we recommend going short a basket of the three excluded stocks against their peers as a short term play.

India Equity Derivatives - F&O Exclusion Trades

India

Tata Elxsi is a global design-led technology services company, specializing in product engineering, software development, and systems integration. It provides solutions across industries including Automotive, Media & Communications, and Healthcare & Life Sciences, leveraging digital technologies like AI, IoT, Cloud, and VR. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Bengaluru, India.

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Tata Elxsi (TELX IN)

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

With 9 trading days to go in the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from Mid to Large and 7 stocks moving the other way. 2 new listings will be...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: L&T Infotech, ICICI Lombard, JSW Energy, Tata Elxsi

JSW Energy: Higher realisation and increased generation at the Vijayanagar and hydro plants boosted Q3FY22 PAT by 126% YoY to INR3.2bn (above ours...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Elxsi, L&T Infotech

We downgrade Tata Elxsi (TELX) to REDUCE (ADD earlier), based on diminishing margin of safety at 43x FY23E and following an in-line Q1 (both...

HDFC Securities

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management

There are a lot of segment changes expected in July when AMFI recategorizes stocks and mutual funds start to rebalance their portfolios. We...

Brian Freitas

India Equity Derivatives - F&O Exclusion Trades

Last evening post market close, the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) published a list of three stocks that would be excluded from the Futures...

Brian Freitas

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