Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> reportedly faces challenges with poor product service, leading to dissatisfied customers. This underscores the urgency to improve its service infrastructure and restore brand trust.</li>
<li>The Indian electric two-wheeler sector saw weak sales in August, following a robust July, with Ola experiencing a sharp decline in monthly volumes and a loss of market share.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>  is gearing up for a January 2025 EV launch and is preparing to establish a 25,000-unit charging infrastructure in advance.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) reportedly faces challenges with poor product service, leading to dissatisfied customers. This underscores the urgency to improve its service infrastructure and restore brand trust.
The Indian electric two-wheeler sector saw weak sales in August, following a robust July, with Ola experiencing a sharp decline in monthly volumes and a loss of market share.
Meanwhile, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)  is gearing up for a January 2025 EV launch and is preparing to establish a 25,000-unit charging infrastructure in advance.


Ola Electric's Negative Noise. Maruti Suzuki's Electric Plans: India EV Update

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India</a> reported an 8% decline in monthly dispatch volumes ahead of India's festive season, coinciding with a sharp increase in shipments by competitors in the SUV space.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> , Toyota Kirloskar Motor ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> JV), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Corp (000270 KS)</a> each posted high double-digit volume growth in August.</li>
<li>Overall, India's domestic Passenger Vehicle sales growth for the April-August period has slowed year-on-year after two years of strong post-COVID momentum.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor India reported an 8% decline in monthly dispatch volumes ahead of India's festive season, coinciding with a sharp increase in shipments by competitors in the SUV space.

Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) , Toyota Kirloskar Motor ( Toyota Motor (7203 JP) JV), and Kia Corp (000270 KS) each posted high double-digit volume growth in August.
Overall, India's domestic Passenger Vehicle sales growth for the April-August period has slowed year-on-year after two years of strong post-COVID momentum.


Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Western Carriers / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-carriers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39869:1" rel="noopener">Western Carriers (1489172D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Western Carriers (India) Limited (WCIL) was the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, 4PL asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22, as per 1Lattice.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Western Carriers (1489172D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
Western Carriers (India) Limited (WCIL) was the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, 4PL asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22, as per 1Lattice.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM respectively.</li><li>The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) degrew by 1-4% YoY (up 3% MoM), largely due to weakness in MSIL/Tata Motors/Hyundai/ Honda partly offset by strong domestic SUV volumes by Toyota/ M&amp;M/ Kia/ MG.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~11% YoY (marginally up 3% MoM) mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes which were partly set off by high bus volumes). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM respectively.The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) degrew by 1-4% YoY (up 3% MoM), largely due to weakness in MSIL/Tata Motors/Hyundai/ Honda partly offset by strong domestic SUV volumes by Toyota/ M&amp;M/ Kia/ MG.The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~11% YoY (marginally up 3% MoM) mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes which were partly set off by high bus volumes). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited provides cars and commercial vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells fossil fuel and electric cars, as well as heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances, and mini-buses. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles serves customers worldwide.

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Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV IN)

Ola Electric's Negative Noise. Maruti Suzuki's Electric Plans: India EV Update

Reports of rising customer complaints highlight the need for faster ramp up in service infrastructure - a weak point for Ola Electric.

Devi Subhakesan

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge

Intensifying competition in the SUV segment and sluggish demand in the hatchback segment has led to slowing sales volumes YTD. Market response to...

Devi Subhakesan

Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

Western Carriers (India) Limited is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

Auto Monthly Volume August 2024

Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ola Electric's Negative Noise. Maruti Suzuki's Electric Plans: India EV Update

Reports of rising customer complaints highlight the need for faster ramp up in service infrastructure - a weak point for Ola Electric.

Devi Subhakesan

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge

Intensifying competition in the SUV segment and sluggish demand in the hatchback segment has led to slowing sales volumes YTD. Market response to...

Devi Subhakesan

Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

Western Carriers (India) Limited is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

Auto Monthly Volume August 2024

Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM...

Axis Direct

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...