Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.</li>
<li>Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.</li>
<li>Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. </li>
</ul>


U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. 


Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Steel, Tata Motors</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday hat the US had “a very good meeting with China in Switzerland”, with “great progress made”. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described "substantial progress", adding that further details would be announced today.</li>
<li>Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng highlighted that the talks were "candid, in-depth and constructive" on issues of concern to both countries, adding that the meeting “achieved substantial progress” and “reached important consensus”.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Steel, Tata Motors
US President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday hat the US had “a very good meeting with China in Switzerland”, with “great progress made”. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described "substantial progress", adding that further details would be announced today.
Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng highlighted that the talks were "candid, in-depth and constructive" on issues of concern to both countries, adding that the meeting “achieved substantial progress” and “reached important consensus”.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Belrise Industries / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/belrise-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44122:1" rel="noopener">Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$255m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN) is looking to raise about US$255m in its upcoming India IPO.
Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Belrise Industries Pre-IPO - Expansion Plans and Related Party Risks

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.</li>
<li>Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.</a>
</li>
</ul>


Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN),  Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.



Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Equity Bottom-Up

Steel Authority of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways</li>
<li>Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs</li>
<li>SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.</li>
</ul>


SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.


Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

India

Tata Steel Ltd. is an integrated steel producer which manufactures a variety of steel products. The Company's products include steel ball bearing rings, alloy steel bearing rings, annular forgings, flanges, bearings, welded steel tubes, cold rolled strips and seamless tubes. Tata Steel also manufactures metallurgical machinery.

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Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Steel, Tata Motors

Lucror Analytics

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

Despite its vast resources, SAIL's operational inefficiencies have led to underperformance and a loss in market share. A deeper discount on its...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Steel, Tata Motors

Lucror Analytics

Belrise Industries Pre-IPO - Expansion Plans and Related Party Risks

Belrise Industries Limited is looking to raise about US$255m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

​Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

​Despite its vast resources, SAIL's operational inefficiencies have led to underperformance and a loss in market share. A deeper discount on its...

Rahul Jain

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Despite its vast resources, SAIL's operational inefficiencies have led to underperformance and a loss in market share. A deeper discount on its...