Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Steel, Rakuten Group</li>
<li>Fed policymakers are uncertain, due to a lack of crucial data caused by the US government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he did not support the central bank’s latest interest-rate cut.</li>
<li>He noted that “the anecdotal evidence and the data we got just implied to me underlying resilience in economic activity, more than I had expected”, and stated that he can make a case to lower or hold rates in December. Mr Kashkari joins other Fed officials who have expressed scepticism over the need for another rate decrease in December, with some arguing for holding rates steady to balance inflation and weaker hiring in the labour market.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Steel, Rakuten Group
Fed policymakers are uncertain, due to a lack of crucial data caused by the US government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he did not support the central bank’s latest interest-rate cut.
He noted that “the anecdotal evidence and the data we got just implied to me underlying resilience in economic activity, more than I had expected”, and stated that he can make a case to lower or hold rates in December. Mr Kashkari joins other Fed officials who have expressed scepticism over the need for another rate decrease in December, with some arguing for holding rates steady to balance inflation and weaker hiring in the labour market.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tata Steel’s total crude steel production stood at 7.29 million tons in 1QFY26, flat YoY but down 3% QoQ due to upstream maintenance disruptions in India.</li>
<li>In Europe, the Netherlands saw steady output, while the UK is progressing with its 3.2 MTPA EAF transition at Port Talbot, slated to begin construction in July 2025.</li>
<li>With blast furnace relining at Jamshedpur nearing completion and NINL operations normalized, volume recovery is expected from Q2 onward.</li>
</ul>


Tata Steel’s total crude steel production stood at 7.29 million tons in 1QFY26, flat YoY but down 3% QoQ due to upstream maintenance disruptions in India.
In Europe, the Netherlands saw steady output, while the UK is progressing with its 3.2 MTPA EAF transition at Port Talbot, slated to begin construction in July 2025.
With blast furnace relining at Jamshedpur nearing completion and NINL operations normalized, volume recovery is expected from Q2 onward.


Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

<ul>
<li>Tata Steel has released its Q4 and FY 2024-25 numbers.</li>
<li>Earnings recovery was robust, thanks to operational efficiencies, cost reductions and excellent performance in India despite a challenging global steel market environment.</li>
<li>Profitability improved, while debt decreased and capital investments were maintained amid headwinds in Europe.</li>
</ul>


Tata Steel has released its Q4 and FY 2024-25 numbers.
Earnings recovery was robust, thanks to operational efficiencies, cost reductions and excellent performance in India despite a challenging global steel market environment.
Profitability improved, while debt decreased and capital investments were maintained amid headwinds in Europe.


Tata Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.</li>
<li>The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.</li>
<li>We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. </li>
</ul>


Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. 


Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

<ul>
<li>Tata Steel’s India business is poised for multi-year volume expansion, backed by ample land availability across three key locations. </li>
<li>Losses from UK and Netherland operations set to ease. UK operations are under transitioning phase from BF to EAF. Discussions are on with the Netherlands govt. </li>
<li>Valuations: Tata Steel trades at 6.5x EV/EBITDA based on estimated FY26 EBITDA. Stock has outperformed local indices and could likely continue. </li>
</ul>


Tata Steel’s India business is poised for multi-year volume expansion, backed by ample land availability across three key locations. 
Losses from UK and Netherland operations set to ease. UK operations are under transitioning phase from BF to EAF. Discussions are on with the Netherlands govt. 
Valuations: Tata Steel trades at 6.5x EV/EBITDA based on estimated FY26 EBITDA. Stock has outperformed local indices and could likely continue. 


Tata Steel (TATA IN): Scaling Up Domestic Operations, Easing EU Drag

India

Tata Steel Ltd. is an integrated steel producer which manufactures a variety of steel products. The Company's products include steel ball bearing rings, alloy steel bearing rings, annular forgings, flanges, bearings, welded steel tubes, cold rolled strips and seamless tubes. Tata Steel also manufactures metallurgical machinery.

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Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Steel, Rakuten Group

Lucror Analytics

Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

Tata Steel's 1QFY26 production flat YoY at 7.29M tons, down 3% QoQ due to maintenance disruptions; Europe steady, UK EAF transition progressing,...

Rahul Jain

Tata Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Earnings recovery was robust, thanks to operational efficiencies, cost reductions and excellent performance in India despite a challenging global...

Lucror Analytics

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Rahul Jain

Tata Steel (TATA IN): Scaling Up Domestic Operations, Easing EU Drag

Tata Steel's India business set for strong volume growth, losses from UK and Netherlands operations expected to ease, stock trading at attractive...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Steel, Rakuten Group

Lucror Analytics

Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

​Tata Steel's 1QFY26 production flat YoY at 7.29M tons, down 3% QoQ due to maintenance disruptions; Europe steady, UK EAF transition progressing,...

Rahul Jain

Tata Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Earnings recovery was robust, thanks to operational efficiencies, cost reductions and excellent performance in India despite a challenging global...

Lucror Analytics

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

​Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Rahul Jain

Tata Steel (TATA IN): Scaling Up Domestic Operations, Easing EU Drag

​Tata Steel's India business set for strong volume growth, losses from UK and Netherlands operations expected to ease, stock trading at attractive...

Rahul Jain

Tata Steel's 1QFY26 production flat YoY at 7.29M tons, down 3% QoQ due to maintenance disruptions; Europe steady, UK EAF transition progressing,...

Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Tata Steel's India business set for strong volume growth, losses from UK and Netherlands operations expected to ease, stock trading at attractive...