Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> had rallied quite hard the week before last week, then stalled last week, however its looks like maybe is changing in its trend structure, maybe a breakout...</li>
<li>However the breakout may have to wait a bit more, as the NIFTY is overbought WEEKLY according to our model: before the uptrend resumes, there will be a pullback.</li>
<li>Last: as written by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/acegama-advisors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:30807" rel="noopener">AceGama Advisors</a> the WEEKLY options expiry will be moved from Thursday to Monday, starting in April 2025, impacting the market. Read their insight for detailed analysis.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index had rallied quite hard the week before last week, then stalled last week, however its looks like maybe is changing in its trend structure, maybe a breakout...
However the breakout may have to wait a bit more, as the NIFTY is overbought WEEKLY according to our model: before the uptrend resumes, there will be a pullback.
Last: as written by AceGama Advisors the WEEKLY options expiry will be moved from Thursday to Monday, starting in April 2025, impacting the market. Read their insight for detailed analysis.


NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.</li>
<li>The move supports domestic steelmakers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.</li>
<li>Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.</li>
</ul>


India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.
The move supports domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) and Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.
Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.


India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.</li>
<li>Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.</li>
<li>Outperformance to continue? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a>have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.</li>
</ul>


On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.
Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.
Outperformance to continue? JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN),Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) ,Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.


Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcelormittal-sa-8b816bb6-eb73-416f-a30a-56f93d1deb03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38577:1" rel="noopener">ArcelorMittal (MT US)</a> reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.</li>
<li>Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. </li>
<li>Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> </li>
</ul>



ArcelorMittal (MT US) reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.
Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. 
Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) 


ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights, DBX Commodities Limited

DBX Commodities

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights

DBX Commodities Limited

DBX provides the most accurate and comprehensive real-time data and insights for dry bulk commodities based on satellite imagery and intelligence.

Alex CLAUDE, an expert in commodity tech with 15 years experience in the commodity trading industry, teamed up with the Signal Group in 2020 and started DBX. 

Our product is the result of a unique combination of domain and technological expertise. We offer the most comprehensive, accurate and deepest research analytics of the dry bulk commodity market: coal, iron ore, alumina, bauxite, sugar, wheat, soybeans and soymeal.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power  generation reached a record monthly high.</li>
<li>Power  demand in India—and consequently coal demand—is  expected to rise sharply, with peak demand  projected to approach 200 TWh in May according to official sources, driven by warmer weather and  anticipated heat waves. </li>
<li>The monthly decline in power generation resulted in  a 3.4 TWh drop in coal-fired output, while generation  from other energy sources remained broadly stable.</li>
</ul>


Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power  generation reached a record monthly high.
Power  demand in India—and consequently coal demand—is  expected to rise sharply, with peak demand  projected to approach 200 TWh in May according to official sources, driven by warmer weather and  anticipated heat waves. 
The monthly decline in power generation resulted in  a 3.4 TWh drop in coal-fired output, while generation  from other energy sources remained broadly stable.


India

Tata Steel Ltd. is an integrated steel producer which manufactures a variety of steel products. The Company's products include steel ball bearing rings, alloy steel bearing rings, annular forgings, flanges, bearings, welded steel tubes, cold rolled strips and seamless tubes. Tata Steel also manufactures metallurgical machinery.

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Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)

NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

The NIFTY is showing a potential breakout, possibly the start of an uptrend, but it is OVERBOUGHT: expect a pullback before a rally. Weekly...

Nico Rosti

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...

Rahul Jain

India Coal Monitor (12 March 2025)

Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power generation reached a record monthly high. Power demand in India—and consequently coal...

DBX Commodities

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NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

The ​NIFTY is showing a potential breakout, possibly the start of an uptrend, but it is OVERBOUGHT: expect a pullback before a rally. Weekly...

Nico Rosti

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

​India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

​India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

​ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...

Rahul Jain

India Coal Monitor (12 March 2025)

Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power generation reached a record monthly high. Power demand in India—and consequently coal...

DBX Commodities

The NIFTY is showing a potential breakout, possibly the start of an uptrend, but it is OVERBOUGHT: expect a pullback before a rally. Weekly...

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...