Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.</li>
<li>Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.</li>
<li>Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. </li>
</ul>


U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. 


Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.</li>
<li>Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.</a>
</li>
</ul>


Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN),  Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.



Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

<ul>
<li>India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.</li>
<li>The move supports domestic steelmakers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.</li>
<li>Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.</li>
</ul>


India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.
The move supports domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) and Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.
Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.


India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

<ul>
<li>On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.</li>
<li>Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.</li>
<li>Outperformance to continue? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a>have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.</li>
</ul>


On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.
Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.
Outperformance to continue? JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN),Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) ,Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.


Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

National Stock Exchange of India / Index Rebalance

National Stock Exchange of India (NSE IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-stock-exchange" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23751:1" rel="noopener">National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>NSE operates electronic platforms for trading equities, derivatives, currencies, and debt securities, also earning revenue from clearing and settlement services, market data, index licensing, listing fees, connectivity, and technology services.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the index impact, or lack thereof.</li>
</ul>



National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO.
NSE operates electronic platforms for trading equities, derivatives, currencies, and debt securities, also earning revenue from clearing and settlement services, market data, index licensing, listing fees, connectivity, and technology services.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the index impact, or lack thereof.


Aequitas: NSE IPO -Index Flows Won’t Help in the near Term but Will Pickup Later

India

Tata Steel Limited is an Indian multinational steel company that manufactures and distributes a wide range of steel products, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel, tubes, and wire rods. The company serves diverse sectors such as automotive, construction, engineering, and consumer goods. Tata Steel is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on August 26, 1907.

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Tata Steel (TATA IN)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

Aequitas: NSE IPO -Index Flows Won’t Help in the near Term but Will Pickup Later

National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the index flows or...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

​Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

​India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

​India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

Aequitas: NSE IPO -Index Flows Won’t Help in the near Term but Will Pickup Later

National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the index flows or...

Sumeet Singh

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...