Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, we expect 7 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in December. Couple of changes are low probability though.</li>
<li>The Materials sector could be the biggest gainer at the rebalance while nearly all deletions could come from the Consumer Discretionary sector.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.15-15 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 1.7-8.1 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, we expect 7 changes to the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December. Couple of changes are low probability though.
The Materials sector could be the biggest gainer at the rebalance while nearly all deletions could come from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.15-15 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 1.7-8.1 days of ADV.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: The Tail End

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 LargeCap to MidCap, 8 new additions to MidCap, 17 SmallCap to MidCap, 23 MidCap to SmallCap, 5 new additions to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.</li>
<li>Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we'd expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 LargeCap to MidCap, 8 new additions to MidCap, 17 SmallCap to MidCap, 23 MidCap to SmallCap, 5 new additions to SmallCap.
The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.
Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we'd expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.


KOSPI Size Indices - Changes in September & Implications

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

<ul>
<li>Nearly two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see nine potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential adds are dominated by the Materials sector while the potential deletions are mainly from the Consumer Discretionary sector.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-12 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.1-30 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


Nearly two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see nine potential changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
The potential adds are dominated by the Materials sector while the potential deletions are mainly from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-12 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.1-30 days of ADV.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Changes in December

<ul>
<li>The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI on Friday.</li>
<li>There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.</li>
<li>There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC)</a> while there were outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI on Friday.
There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.
There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, iShares India ETF (INDA), Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN) and iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC) while there were outflows for iShares Emerging Markets (EEM).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

South Korea

TCC Steel manufactures and sells electrolytic and copper coated tinplates.  The Company supplies its products to the food, beverage, electronic, and automobile industries. TCC Steel also operates plant construction services as well as real estate leasing businesses.

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Tcc Steel (002710 KS)

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