Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.

Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 </a>with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/saudi-aramco-value-tn-maybe-not" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8177">Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not!</a> my…

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not! my…

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

United Kingdom

TechnipFMC plc provides oilfield services. The Company offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. TechnipFMC serves customers worldwide.

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TechnipFMC (FTI US)

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength...

Vermilion Research

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO...

Thierry Bros, PhD

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