Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.</li>
<li>We also remain bullish on Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM), and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the XLK are both breaking out of their 4-month bases, a very bullish sign as long as $745 and $197 supports hold on any pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.
We also remain bullish on Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM), and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the XLK are both breaking out of their 4-month bases, a very bullish sign as long as $745 and $197 supports hold on any pullbacks.


Nasdaq 100 and Technology (XLK) With 4-Month Base Breakouts; Downgrading Staples to Underweight

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>U.S. small caps, metals and mining stocks, and gold were key detractors within the portfolio suite, offsetting positive allocation effects in our underweight fixed income exposure. </li>
<li>Aggressive portfolios maintained their outperformance YTD driven by strong selections within the equity asset class.</li>
<li>Positioning changes include commodity diversification beyond gold, adding Japanese equities, and maintaining an underweight to bonds.</li>
</ul>


U.S. small caps, metals and mining stocks, and gold were key detractors within the portfolio suite, offsetting positive allocation effects in our underweight fixed income exposure. 
Aggressive portfolios maintained their outperformance YTD driven by strong selections within the equity asset class.
Positioning changes include commodity diversification beyond gold, adding Japanese equities, and maintaining an underweight to bonds.


Portfolio Update: Broader Commodity Positioning, Narrow Equity Leadership

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);</li>
<li>Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.</li>
<li>Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.</li>
</ul>


We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);
Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.
Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.


Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.</li>
<li>We continue to believe Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM) are poised to move higher, and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>A significant "wall of worry" is being built, with the latest bricks being bad breadth and rising interest rate volatility</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7507-7580 holds.
We continue to believe Technology and A.I. areas (XLK, SOXX, DRAM) are poised to move higher, and we have Technology on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
A significant "wall of worry" is being built, with the latest bricks being bad breadth and rising interest rate volatility


Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern? All Hinges on 7507-7580 SPX

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

United States

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of The Technology Select Sector Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap technology stocks. Its largest investment allocation is in the United States. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)

Nasdaq 100 and Technology (XLK) With 4-Month Base Breakouts; Downgrading Staples to Underweight

Nasdaq 100 $QQQ and Technology $XLK With 4-Month Base Breakouts; That is bullish as long as supports of $745 on QQQ and $197 on XLK hold on any...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Update: Broader Commodity Positioning, Narrow Equity Leadership

Full breakdown of our portfolio suite, performance, and new positioning. We broadened our commodity positioning, added Japan, and maintained a core...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

Downgrading Technology $XLK $SOXX $SMH; Upgrading Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names; Outside of A.I. areas,...

Vermilion Research

Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern? All Hinges on 7507-7580 SPX

Interest Rate Volatility, High Yield Spreads, and Bad Breadth a Concern?; All Hinges on 7507-7580 $SPX. We continue to believe Technology and A.I....

Vermilion Research

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)