Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major sources of investor angst: (1) the pace of Fed tightenings and (2) trade policy. The S&amp;P 500 has opened trading today near the 2,817 resistance, a key level we are monitoring. The impending breakout - or breakdown below ~2,600 support, if resistance holds - will be key in determining where the market goes next.  In this report we highlight actionable Industry ETFs, broad EM ETFs and actionable Int’l ETFs, as well as sector rating changes: we are downgrading Technology (XLK) and upgrading Financials (XLF).</p>

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major sources of investor angst: (1) the pace of Fed tightenings and (2) trade policy. The S&amp;P 500 has opened trading today near the 2,817 resistance, a key level we are monitoring. The impending breakout - or breakdown below ~2,600 support, if resistance holds - will be key in determining where the market goes next.  In this report we highlight actionable Industry ETFs, broad EM ETFs and actionable Int’l ETFs, as well as sector rating changes: we are downgrading Technology (XLK) and upgrading Financials (XLF).

Global ETF Synopsis: Highlighting Technical Trends Across the ETF Universe

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Supply shocks from the Strait closure sharply raised fuel costs, disproportionately hurting unhedged U.S. airlines and driving a steep decline in JETS.</li>
<li>XLP fell despite its defensive nature, as rising input costs compressed margins and investors rotated out of staples to fund energy exposure.</li>
<li>XLB declined on supply chain disruptions and recession fears, but easing input costs and improving growth expectations position it for a strong, leverage-driven recovery.</li>
</ul>


Supply shocks from the Strait closure sharply raised fuel costs, disproportionately hurting unhedged U.S. airlines and driving a steep decline in JETS.
XLP fell despite its defensive nature, as rising input costs compressed margins and investors rotated out of staples to fund energy exposure.
XLB declined on supply chain disruptions and recession fears, but easing input costs and improving growth expectations position it for a strong, leverage-driven recovery.


Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest impact passive sell. </li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Recent stock market leadership had become overly concentrated in large-cap technology stocks, which wobbled last week.</li>
<li>The good news is market breadth is broadening out, which sets the tone for further price advances.</li>
<li>However, weakening liquidity and negative seasonality pose short-term risks to the current uptrend. </li>
</ul>


Recent stock market leadership had become overly concentrated in large-cap technology stocks, which wobbled last week.
The good news is market breadth is broadening out, which sets the tone for further price advances.
However, weakening liquidity and negative seasonality pose short-term risks to the current uptrend. 


Can A Rate Cut Promise Overcome Tech's Wobbles?

United States

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of The Technology Select Sector Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap technology stocks. Its largest investment allocation is in the United States. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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P/E	0.00
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Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)

Global ETF Synopsis: Highlighting Technical Trends Across the ETF Universe

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major...

Vermilion Research

Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Can A Rate Cut Promise Overcome Tech's Wobbles?

Recent stock market leadership had become overly concentrated in large-cap technology stocks, which wobbled last week. But breadth is broadening...

Cam Hui

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global ETF Synopsis: Highlighting Technical Trends Across the ETF Universe

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major...

Vermilion Research

Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

​Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Can A Rate Cut Promise Overcome Tech's Wobbles?

Recent stock market leadership had become overly concentrated in large-cap technology stocks, which wobbled last week. But breadth is broadening...

Cam Hui

Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...