Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This follows our insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaches-10k-usd-easy-journey-to-11k-usd-ton-on-lower-inventories-in-the-short-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:191702" rel="noopener">Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term</a>. </li>
<li>Informal miners are disrupting Peruvian copper transport at the Las Bambas (320 kt annual production) and Constancia (110 kt) mines owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hudbay-minerals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25354:1" rel="noopener">Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN).</a> </li>
<li>Peru is the third largest copper producing country in the world (2.6 million tons or 10% of global production), and so following these disruptions is critical. </li>
</ul>


This follows our insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term. 
Informal miners are disrupting Peruvian copper transport at the Las Bambas (320 kt annual production) and Constancia (110 kt) mines owned by MMG (1208 HK) and Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN). 
Peru is the third largest copper producing country in the world (2.6 million tons or 10% of global production), and so following these disruptions is critical. 


Peruvian Copper Supply Disruptions Gaining Momentum: Bullish Copper, Back To Over 10k USD This Week?

<ul>
<li>Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.  </li>
<li>The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term. </li>
<li>We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production. </li>
</ul>


Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.  
The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term. 
We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production. 


Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

<ul>
<li>Copper prices on the spot market are set to breach 10,000 USD/ton again as inventory levels tighten on the LME, driven by a rush to ship metal to the US. </li>
<li>Current KPIs in China, such as weak steel production (-2-3% YoY est.) and thermal power production (-19% YoY) for May temper our bullishness.  </li>
<li>We are bullish on copper in the short term, expecting it to break above $10,000 USD easily. However, we will closely monitor China data for potential impacts on the outlook.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices on the spot market are set to breach 10,000 USD/ton again as inventory levels tighten on the LME, driven by a rush to ship metal to the US. 
Current KPIs in China, such as weak steel production (-2-3% YoY est.) and thermal power production (-19% YoY) for May temper our bullishness.  
We are bullish on copper in the short term, expecting it to break above $10,000 USD easily. However, we will closely monitor China data for potential impacts on the outlook.


Copper Tracker 23rd June 2025: Bullish On Low Inventory, But Need To Monitor China

<ul>
<li>The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. </li>
<li>We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ).</li>
</ul>


The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).


Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

<ul>
<li>China's copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.</li>
<li>The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.</li>
<li>We provide updates on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN</a> )'s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals. </li>
</ul>


China's copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.
The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.
We provide updates on Lundin Mining (LUN CN )'s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals. 


Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China's Whopping Copper Imports

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK US)

Peruvian Copper Supply Disruptions Gaining Momentum: Bullish Copper, Back To Over 10k USD This Week?

Peru's informal miner strikes may disrupt Las Bambas and Constancia, risking short-term tightness in global copper supply, given Peru's nearly 10%...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

We project copper to rally to $11,000/ton soon, driven by dwindling inventories, supply disruptions, high COMEX premiums, and a weaker dollar.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 23rd June 2025: Bullish On Low Inventory, But Need To Monitor China

We highlight KPIs for tracking copper, including inventory data, exchange spreads, and TSF for China. We also list our top picks in equities for...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

This insight covers the KPIs we track in the short term, confirming our constructive view on copper. We also look at our top equity picks in the...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China's Whopping Copper Imports

China's copper and concentrate imports hit a record 2.924 million tons, up 24.4% YoY, beating expectations despite trade war concerns, signaling...

Sameer Taneja

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