Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Teck Resources Limited's third quarter of 2024 marks a transformative phase as the company evolves into a pure-play energy transition metals entity following the sale of its residual interest in the Steelmaking Coal business.</li><li>This divestiture has substantially fortified Teck's financial position, yielding USD 7.3 billion in cash and enabling one of the corporation's most significant shareholder returns in its history.</li><li>These returns include USD 720 million in dividends and share buybacks during the quarter, and over USD 1.3 billion year-to-date.</li></ul>

Teck Resources Limited's third quarter of 2024 marks a transformative phase as the company evolves into a pure-play energy transition metals entity following the sale of its residual interest in the Steelmaking Coal business.This divestiture has substantially fortified Teck's financial position, yielding USD 7.3 billion in cash and enabling one of the corporation's most significant shareholder returns in its history.These returns include USD 720 million in dividends and share buybacks during the quarter, and over USD 1.3 billion year-to-date.

Teck Resources Limited: Project Development & Strategic Diversification Fuelling Our 'Buy' Rating! - Major Drivers

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-to-end-the-year-with-seasonal-strength-onward-to-12-000-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206735" rel="noopener">Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton</a>, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. </li>
</ul>


In our previous insight Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. 

Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.
FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. 


Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> fails in May 2024; 17 months later, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> merge.</li>
<li>The Anglo Teck portfolio will have more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual copper production, anchored by six world-class copper assets with more than 70% copper exposure.</li>
<li>The company will divest its non-core assets, including DeBeers, steelmaking coal, nickel, and other similar assets, and pivot to consolidating/growing its copper operations.</li>
</ul>



Anglo American (AAL LN) - BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) fails in May 2024; 17 months later, Anglo American (AAL LN) - Teck Resources (TECK US) merge.
The Anglo Teck portfolio will have more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual copper production, anchored by six world-class copper assets with more than 70% copper exposure.
The company will divest its non-core assets, including DeBeers, steelmaking coal, nickel, and other similar assets, and pivot to consolidating/growing its copper operations.


Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

<ul>
<li>COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. </li>
<li>We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.</li>
<li>Follow our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaches-10k-usd-easy-journey-to-11k-usd-ton-on-lower-inventories-in-the-short-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:191702" rel="noopener">Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term</a> </li>
</ul>


COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. 
We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.
Follow our prior insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term 


Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Declining Chinese inventory and rising premiums bode well for the copper price.</li>
<li>Speculative interest, as per the COT reports, is low, providing room for new buyers.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and defence spending are on the rise in most regions of the world</li>
</ul>


Declining Chinese inventory and rising premiums bode well for the copper price.
Speculative interest, as per the COT reports, is low, providing room for new buyers.
Infrastructure and defence spending are on the rise in most regions of the world


From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK US)

Teck Resources Limited: Project Development & Strategic Diversification Fuelling Our 'Buy' Rating! - Major Drivers

Teck Resources Limited's third quarter of 2024 marks a transformative phase as the company evolves into a pure-play energy transition metals...

Baptista Research

Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

Copper has just passed 11,000 USD/ton. We believe we are still at the nascent stages of our bullish call on copper, and the next stop is 12,000 USD...

Sameer Taneja

Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

The copper complex is consolidating, with major players pivoting by divesting their non-copper assets. The Anglo-Teck merger is a clear indication...

Sameer Taneja

Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

With the Trump administration now leaning towards a 50% import tariff in the short term, copper prices on the LME have gained upward momentum. How...

Sameer Taneja

From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom

Copper has now broken decisively through $5/lb on new cycle lows for the USD last night. $1208 MMG Ltd is nearing $4 resistance, and we would take...

Rikki Malik

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