Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. </li>
<li>These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. </li>
<li>We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. 
These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. 
We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.</li>
<li>Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.</li>
<li>Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.</li>
</ul>


Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.
Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.
Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.


Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a target="_blank">"Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a>," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.</li>
<li>We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries of the copper rally are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, which are our top picks. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, "Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 


Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Glencore’s dual role as competitor and gatekeeper shifts bargaining leverage, making deal terms contingent on a rival’s consent.</li>
<li>Cross-Continental reviews across Canada, Chile, and beyond create compounding risks of serial delays, amplified by political sensitivities over copper’s strategic importance and public opposition to foreign takeovers.</li>
<li>The option of counterbids or merger breakup invites activists and bidders, fuelling uncertainty and volatility </li>
</ul>


Glencore’s dual role as competitor and gatekeeper shifts bargaining leverage, making deal terms contingent on a rival’s consent.
Cross-Continental reviews across Canada, Chile, and beyond create compounding risks of serial delays, amplified by political sensitivities over copper’s strategic importance and public opposition to foreign takeovers.
The option of counterbids or merger breakup invites activists and bidders, fuelling uncertainty and volatility 


Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK US)

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

Anglo–Teck: A Deal Built on Fragility

Glencore's dual role as competitor and gatekeeper in cross-continental deals creates uncertainty and volatility, with deal terms contingent on...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

​Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

Anglo–Teck: A Deal Built on Fragility

​Glencore's dual role as competitor and gatekeeper in cross-continental deals creates uncertainty and volatility, with deal terms contingent on...

Mint Finance

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Glencore's dual role as competitor and gatekeeper in cross-continental deals creates uncertainty and volatility, with deal terms contingent on...