Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>Telenor is strategically refocusing on its core Nordic operations, aiming for profitable growth and operational efficiency, while de-risking and simplifying its Asian portfolio through strategic mergers and divestments.</li>
  <li>The company maintains a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a consistent and growing dividend, supported by ambitious free cash flow targets and a share buyback program.</li>
  <li>Key challenges include navigating intense competition in mature Nordic markets, managing regulatory and political risks in its remaining Asian operations, and addressing a recent trend of declining revenues.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Telenor is strategically refocusing on its core Nordic operations, aiming for profitable growth and operational efficiency, while de-risking and simplifying its Asian portfolio through strategic mergers and divestments.
  The company maintains a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a consistent and growing dividend, supported by ambitious free cash flow targets and a share buyback program.
  Key challenges include navigating intense competition in mature Nordic markets, managing regulatory and political risks in its remaining Asian operations, and addressing a recent trend of declining revenues.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Norway

Telenor ASA is an international provider of tele, data and media communication services, and has mobile operations in 13 markets across the Nordic region, Central and Eastern Europe and Asia. The Group also offers fixed telephony, broadband and TV services in the Nordic region.

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Telenor ASA (TEL NO)

Primer: Telenor ASA (TEL NO) - Aug 2026

Telenor is strategically refocusing on its core Nordic operations, aiming for profitable growth and operational efficiency, while de-risking and...

αSK Primers

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

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Primer: Telenor ASA (TEL NO) - Aug 2026

Telenor is strategically refocusing on its core Nordic operations, aiming for profitable growth and operational efficiency, while de-risking and...

αSK Primers

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....