Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> have moved up over the last 8 trading session to trade at or closer to their VTO prices.</li>
<li>Trading at the VTO price, we recommend selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> rather than run the risk of deal break or waiting 3-5 months to be paid out.</li>
<li>A safer trade is to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>. There will be index trades to do if the merger is approved. </li>
</ul>



Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) have moved up over the last 8 trading session to trade at or closer to their VTO prices.
Trading at the VTO price, we recommend selling Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) rather than run the risk of deal break or waiting 3-5 months to be paid out.
A safer trade is to buy True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and sell Total Access Communication (DTAC TB). There will be index trades to do if the merger is approved. 


DTAC/TRUE Merger: Stocks Trading Near Their VTO Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> are exploring a merger of equals at a swap ratio of 1:10.221. NBTC approval could be the biggest hurdle.</li>
<li>Both stocks are trading lower than their Voluntary Tender Offer prices. The spread is between 5.5-6.5% and that could close over the next couple of months.</li>
<li>We prefer a long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> trade as the downside is protected in case of a deal break.</li>
</ul>



Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) are exploring a merger of equals at a swap ratio of 1:10.221. NBTC approval could be the biggest hurdle.
Both stocks are trading lower than their Voluntary Tender Offer prices. The spread is between 5.5-6.5% and that could close over the next couple of months.
We prefer a long Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / short True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) trade as the downside is protected in case of a deal break.


DTAC/TRUE Merger: Details and Index Implications

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carousell-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28154:1" rel="noopener">Carousell Pte Ltd (1040620D SP)</a> is South East Asia's largest  "classifieds marketplace" and it claims to make selling as easy as taking a photo and buying as simple as chatting. The traffic through Carousell is impressive but the question is can it monetize this huge potential?
Founded in August 2012, Carousell began in Singapore and is now one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing classifieds marketplaces, with a presence in eight markets across South East Asia, together with Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Carousell offers through classified listings a diverse range of products across a variety of categories, including lifestyle, gadgets, and fashion accessories but has been moving to more profitable and big-ticket areas, such as autos, property, and job ads.
The company is backed by a number of large-sized investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telenor-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22258:1" rel="noopener">Telenor ASA (TEL NO)</a>, Rakuten Ventures <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>, Naver, Sequoia Capital (India), OLX, and most recently STIC investments giving the company strong backing with the most recent valuation at US$1.1bn, sealing its entry to the unicorn club. 
The company was reportedly exploring a potential listing in the US through a SPAC listing which could value the company at as much as US$1.5bn but management has said that it is considering all options to grow the company including an IPO. Carousel this year appointed a former <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a> executive Edwin Chan as its CFO. Chan oversaw a gaming hardware company’s public listing in Hong Kong in 2017. We see this company as one of the most ESG-friendly investments available given its exposure to the circular economy.

Carousell Pte Ltd (1040620D SP) is South East Asia's largest  "classifieds marketplace" and it claims to make selling as easy as taking a photo and buying as simple as chatting. The traffic through Carousell is impressive but the question is can it monetize this huge potential?
Founded in August 2012, Carousell began in Singapore and is now one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing classifieds marketplaces, with a presence in eight markets across South East Asia, together with Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Carousell offers through classified listings a diverse range of products across a variety of categories, including lifestyle, gadgets, and fashion accessories but has been moving to more profitable and big-ticket areas, such as autos, property, and job ads.
The company is backed by a number of large-sized investors including Telenor ASA (TEL NO), Rakuten Ventures Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), Naver, Sequoia Capital (India), OLX, and most recently STIC investments giving the company strong backing with the most recent valuation at US$1.1bn, sealing its entry to the unicorn club. 
The company was reportedly exploring a potential listing in the US through a SPAC listing which could value the company at as much as US$1.5bn but management has said that it is considering all options to grow the company including an IPO. Carousel this year appointed a former Razer Inc (1337 HK) executive Edwin Chan as its CFO. Chan oversaw a gaming hardware company’s public listing in Hong Kong in 2017. We see this company as one of the most ESG-friendly investments available given its exposure to the circular economy.

Carousell - Champion of the Circular Economy

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Total Access Communication / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>DTAC's earnings again beat the market's forecast in 2Q21 on one-time cost initiatives, while core profit grew QoQ for the second consecutive quarter.</li><li>With its ability to monetize network investment alongside well-managed costs, we leave our full-year earnings estimates unchanged.</li><li>Our Buy rating is maintained on its undemanding valuation (trading at 2021E EV/EBITDA of 4x, close to the LT average -1 S.D.) plus the dividend yield of 6% as the cushion for downside.</li></ul>

DTAC's earnings again beat the market's forecast in 2Q21 on one-time cost initiatives, while core profit grew QoQ for the second consecutive quarter.With its ability to monetize network investment alongside well-managed costs, we leave our full-year earnings estimates unchanged.Our Buy rating is maintained on its undemanding valuation (trading at 2021E EV/EBITDA of 4x, close to the LT average -1 S.D.) plus the dividend yield of 6% as the cushion for downside.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

In this Insight, we present some of the key catalysts that argue for a Buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> in spite of a sharp rally post Q2 and AGR rulings. Our target price is based on the expected market consolidation, that could lead to subscriber additions, growth in ARPU and the revenue potential that Africa business offers. Compared to the Industry, Airtel's balance sheet is already under repair mode, along with further opportunities for deleveraging. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a>  seems to be the best positioned to gain from current market consolidation, offering a better return potential compared to Singtel.

In this Insight, we present some of the key catalysts that argue for a Buy on Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) in spite of a sharp rally post Q2 and AGR rulings. Our target price is based on the expected market consolidation, that could lead to subscriber additions, growth in ARPU and the revenue potential that Africa business offers. Compared to the Industry, Airtel's balance sheet is already under repair mode, along with further opportunities for deleveraging. Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)  seems to be the best positioned to gain from current market consolidation, offering a better return potential compared to Singtel.  

Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) | The Last One Standing

Norway

Telenor ASA is an international provider of tele, data and media communication services, and has mobile operations in 13 markets across the Nordic region, Central and Eastern Europe and Asia. The Group also offers fixed telephony, broadband and TV services in the Nordic region.

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Telenor ASA (TEL NO)

DTAC/TRUE Merger: Stocks Trading Near Their VTO Prices

DTAC is trading at its VTO price while TRUE is trading 3% lower than its VTO price. The risk/reward has now shifted and we would look to sell DTAC...

Brian Freitas

DTAC/TRUE Merger: Details and Index Implications

DTAC and TRUE are exploring a merger of equals. The biggest hurdle could be regulatory approval since the merged entity would have a market share >...

Brian Freitas

Carousell - Champion of the Circular Economy

Carousell is South-East Asia's largest classifieds marketplace which recently entered the uniform club with a valuation of US$1.1bn. It is a unique...

Angus Mackintosh

Positive Earnings Surprise in 2Q21

DTAC's earnings again beat the market's forecast in 2Q21 on one-time cost initiatives, while core profit grew QoQ for the second consecutive...

Krungthai XSpring

Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) | The Last One Standing

In this Insight, we present some of the key catalysts that argue for a Buy on Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) in spite of a sharp rally post Q2 and AGR...

Pranav Bhavsar

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