Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 11th May, published on the 15th May.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.6bn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$129mn out of "Biotech". Net shorts increased A$2.1bn week-on-week.
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telstra-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1" rel="noopener">Telstra Corp (TLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotus-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13978:1" rel="noopener">Lotus Resources (LOT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arafura-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16550:1" rel="noopener">Arafura Resources (ARU AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 11th May, published on the 15th May.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.6bn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$129mn out of "Biotech". Net shorts increased A$2.1bn week-on-week.

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Telstra Corp (TLS AU), Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU), Lotus Resources (LOT AU), Arafura Resources (ARU AU), and Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU).


Aussie Shorts [11 May 2026]: Telstra, Woolworths, Lotus Res., Arafura Res., Mcmillan Shakespeare

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Telstra is guiding to subdued mobile growth in FY26 as the cost of living bites.</li><li>Earnings growth relies on cost cutting and satellite development.</li><li> -Telstra&rsquo;s FY25 in line, FY26 prognosis subdued -Cost of living driving customers to cheaper options -Major staff reductions to drive cost-outs -Satellite service critical to maintaining dominance</li></ul>

Telstra is guiding to subdued mobile growth in FY26 as the cost of living bites.Earnings growth relies on cost cutting and satellite development. -Telstra&rsquo;s FY25 in line, FY26 prognosis subdued -Cost of living driving customers to cheaper options -Major staff reductions to drive cost-outs -Satellite service critical to maintaining dominance

Buybacks, Dividends Define Telstra's Future

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez</a> plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.</li>
<li>GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.
GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Guzman Y Gomez IPO - The Negatives - Lawsuits and Management Churn

Singapore Telecommunications / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly (AFR), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. </li>
<li>SingTel quickly <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20Announcement%2020240313.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=791796" target="_blank" rel="noopener">countered</a> there is no impending deal; and "Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term."</li>
<li>Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly (AFR), Singtel (ST SP) is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. 
SingTel quickly countered there is no impending deal; and "Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term."
Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.


Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Australia

Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.  The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

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Telstra Corp (TLS AU)

Aussie Shorts [11 May 2026]: Telstra, Woolworths, Lotus Res., Arafura Res., Mcmillan Shakespeare

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.6bn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$129mn out of...

David Blennerhassett

Buybacks, Dividends Define Telstra's Future

Telstra is guiding to subdued mobile growth in FY26 as the cost of living bites. Earnings growth relies on cost cutting and satellite...

FNArena

Guzman Y Gomez IPO - The Negatives - Lawsuits and Management Churn

Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

SingTel is a deep value play, and an inexpensive entry into Bharti; yet the market pushes the implied stub further into negative territory. A sale...

David Blennerhassett

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

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