Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Owner and CEO, GR20 Research

Gregory Ramirez

Owner and CEO

Industry Research and Consulting Services

GR20 Research

GR20 Research provides industry research and consulting services

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Temenos has dismissed CEO Jean-Pierre Brulard after 16 months, despite progress under his leadership. CFO Panagiotis Spiliopoulos has been appointed interim CEO while a search for a successor is underway.   </li>
<li>The company’s repeated reliance on CFOs to fill CEO roles and failure to retain or promote internal candidates from sales or product functions highlight structural weaknesses in leadership succession planning.   </li>
<li>Although Temenos’ strategic plan is in place and early results are positive, the leadership instability has reignited investor concerns—reflected in a c. 15% share price drop.</li>
</ul>


Temenos has dismissed CEO Jean-Pierre Brulard after 16 months, despite progress under his leadership. CFO Panagiotis Spiliopoulos has been appointed interim CEO while a search for a successor is underway.   
The company’s repeated reliance on CFOs to fill CEO roles and failure to retain or promote internal candidates from sales or product functions highlight structural weaknesses in leadership succession planning.   
Although Temenos’ strategic plan is in place and early results are positive, the leadership instability has reignited investor concerns—reflected in a c. 15% share price drop.


Temenos (TEMN SW): Structural Senior Leadership Issue

<ul>
<li>The sale of Multifonds at a low EV/EBIT multiple of 8.0x reflects Montagu's use of a higher multiple based on adjustments to EBITDA, pointing out modest free cash flow contribution.   </li>
<li>Considering the sale, Temenos revised 2028 targets, reducing ARR, operating profit, and free cash flow projections accordingly. Investors are looking for more transparency on how these changes affect operating margin.   </li>
<li>Temenos’ shift from total software licensing breakdowns to a unified subscriptions/SaaS line, alongside complex revenue recognition rules, adds to investor uncertainty about how to assess the future revenue structure.</li>
</ul>


The sale of Multifonds at a low EV/EBIT multiple of 8.0x reflects Montagu's use of a higher multiple based on adjustments to EBITDA, pointing out modest free cash flow contribution.   
Considering the sale, Temenos revised 2028 targets, reducing ARR, operating profit, and free cash flow projections accordingly. Investors are looking for more transparency on how these changes affect operating margin.   
Temenos’ shift from total software licensing breakdowns to a unified subscriptions/SaaS line, alongside complex revenue recognition rules, adds to investor uncertainty about how to assess the future revenue structure.


Temenos (TEMN SW): Trying to Solve the Modelling Puzzle

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Temenos held its Capital Markets Day on Feb 20, 2024, where management addressed the allegations made by Hindenburg Research.</li><li>Temenos Chairman who is also the Chair of the Audit Committee, fundamentally refutes the report published by Hindenburg Research and has assured that Temenos is running a very sound business.</li><li>The Chairman also informed that the Board is going to hire a top independent third-party consultant in order to address these allegations. Once the whole examination is completed, he will come back with more detail answer.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Temenos held its Capital Markets Day on Feb 20, 2024, where management addressed the allegations made by Hindenburg Research.Temenos Chairman who is also the Chair of the Audit Committee, fundamentally refutes the report published by Hindenburg Research and has assured that Temenos is running a very sound business.The Chairman also informed that the Board is going to hire a top independent third-party consultant in order to address these allegations. Once the whole examination is completed, he will come back with more detail answer.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Technology: Temenos Capital Markets Day – Key Takeaways; Systems Limited – “Buy Maintained”

<ul><li>Hindenburg Research has released a short report on Temenos, with allegations of accounting irregularities in the company.</li><li>About Hindenburg Research: Hindenburg Research specializes in forensic financial research. While they use fundamental analysis to aid investment decision-making, their research results also came from uncovering hard-to-find information from atypical sources.</li><li>In particular they often look for situations where companies may have any combination of (1) accounting irregularities, (2) bad actors in management or key service provider roles, (3) undisclosed related-party transactions, (4) Illegal/unethical business or financial reporting practices, and (5) Undisclosed regulatory, product or financial issues.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindenburg Research has released a short report on Temenos, with allegations of accounting irregularities in the company.About Hindenburg Research: Hindenburg Research specializes in forensic financial research. While they use fundamental analysis to aid investment decision-making, their research results also came from uncovering hard-to-find information from atypical sources.In particular they often look for situations where companies may have any combination of (1) accounting irregularities, (2) bad actors in management or key service provider roles, (3) undisclosed related-party transactions, (4) Illegal/unethical business or financial reporting practices, and (5) Undisclosed regulatory, product or financial issues.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline Flash Note: Systems Limited (SYS) - Allegations on Temenos

Switzerland

Temenos AG provides integrated software solutions. The Company offers analytics, channels, financial crime mitigation, funds and securities, risk and compliance, and front office and digital banking suits for the management of administrative tasks at banks and financial services companies. Temenos operates worldwide.

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Temenos AG (TEMN SW)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Temenos (TEMN SW): Structural Senior Leadership Issue

Temenos dismisses CEO after 16 months, appoints CFO as interim CEO, highlighting weaknesses in leadership succession planning and causing investor...

Gregory Ramirez

Temenos (TEMN SW): Trying to Solve the Modelling Puzzle

Montagu's sale of Multifonds at low multiple prompts Temenos to revise targets, causing investor uncertainty over revenue structure and operating...

Gregory Ramirez

Pakistan Technology: Temenos Capital Markets Day – Key Takeaways; Systems Limited – “Buy Maintained”

Temenos held its Capital Markets Day on Feb 20, 2024, where management addressed the allegations made by Hindenburg Research. Temenos Chairman who...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Systems Limited (SYS) - Allegations on Temenos

Hindenburg Research has released a short report on Temenos, with allegations of accounting irregularities in the company. About Hindenburg...

Topline Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Temenos (TEMN SW): Structural Senior Leadership Issue

​Temenos dismisses CEO after 16 months, appoints CFO as interim CEO, highlighting weaknesses in leadership succession planning and causing investor...

Gregory Ramirez

Temenos (TEMN SW): Trying to Solve the Modelling Puzzle

​Montagu's sale of Multifonds at low multiple prompts Temenos to revise targets, causing investor uncertainty over revenue structure and operating...

Gregory Ramirez

Pakistan Technology: Temenos Capital Markets Day – Key Takeaways; Systems Limited – “Buy Maintained”

Temenos held its Capital Markets Day on Feb 20, 2024, where management addressed the allegations made by Hindenburg Research. Temenos Chairman who...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Systems Limited (SYS) - Allegations on Temenos

Hindenburg Research has released a short report on Temenos, with allegations of accounting irregularities in the company. About Hindenburg...

Topline Securities

Temenos dismisses CEO after 16 months, appoints CFO as interim CEO, highlighting weaknesses in leadership succession planning and causing investor...

Montagu's sale of Multifonds at low multiple prompts Temenos to revise targets, causing investor uncertainty over revenue structure and operating...