Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I expect GRAIL shares will appreciate over time as investors gain greater conviction in one of the most meaningful opportunities in healthcare.</li>
<li>A fast-growing maker of MCED screening tests reported ~46% sales growth of Galleri tests in 2024. Commercial Galleri sales surpassed 250K tests since launch.</li>
<li>At ~0.5x EV/2025E revenues, GRAIL shares trade at a significant discount to Guardant Health and Tempus AI. GRAIL shares appreciated ˃100% from October 4, 2024.</li>
</ul>


I expect GRAIL shares will appreciate over time as investors gain greater conviction in one of the most meaningful opportunities in healthcare.
A fast-growing maker of MCED screening tests reported ~46% sales growth of Galleri tests in 2024. Commercial Galleri sales surpassed 250K tests since launch.
At ~0.5x EV/2025E revenues, GRAIL shares trade at a significant discount to Guardant Health and Tempus AI. GRAIL shares appreciated ˃100% from October 4, 2024.


GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.</li>
<li>Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.</li>
<li>I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.</li>
</ul>


In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.
Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.
I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.


GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Tempus AI, a healthcare IT company and provider of next-gen diagnostics, is expected to IPO next week. The company plans to raise $411M at the high end of the range.</li>
<li>The most recent S-1/A puts the expected price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$6B at the midpoint.</li>
<li>Tempus AI provides personalized cancer care and brings AI to healthcare at scale. They train LLMs to develop AI applications and have the largest public genomic data sets in oncology</li>
</ul>


Tempus AI, a healthcare IT company and provider of next-gen diagnostics, is expected to IPO next week. The company plans to raise $411M at the high end of the range.
The most recent S-1/A puts the expected price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$6B at the midpoint.
Tempus AI provides personalized cancer care and brings AI to healthcare at scale. They train LLMs to develop AI applications and have the largest public genomic data sets in oncology


Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

United States

Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a clinical laboratory. The Company provides genomic sequencing services and analyze molecular and therapeutic data to help physicians to make real-time and data-driven decisions.Tempus AI serves customers in the United States.

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Tempus AI (TEM US)

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance

GRAIL shares have materially outperformed Nasdaq and peers. The stock has bottomed in the low $13s and gained more than 100%. I see further room...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

GRAIL, a fast-growing Galleri test maker, spun off from Illumina in June. The population-scale MCED screening test identifies 50+ types of cancer...

Andrei Zakharov

Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

Healthcare IT company Tempus AI is expected to IPO next week, making it one of several high-profile AI unicorns scheduled to go public this year.

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance

GRAIL shares have materially outperformed Nasdaq and peers. The stock has bottomed in the low $13s and gained more than 100%. I see further room...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

GRAIL, a fast-growing Galleri test maker, spun off from Illumina in June. The population-scale MCED screening test identifies 50+ types of cancer...

Andrei Zakharov

Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

​Healthcare IT company Tempus AI is expected to IPO next week, making it one of several high-profile AI unicorns scheduled to go public this year.

Andrei Zakharov

Healthcare IT company Tempus AI is expected to IPO next week, making it one of several high-profile AI unicorns scheduled to go public this year.